Climatologist paints bleak picture for Thai farmers
More than 20 million Thai farming households are currently living on or below the poverty line due to various factors, including the fear of El Nino, which severely affects and increases hardships for those who work the land.
Dr. Seri Suprathit, director of Rangsit University's Climate Change and Disaster Centre, says that comprehensive reforms are needed to increase agricultural productivity, reduce water usage, and implement innovative solutions for survival.
In a Facebook post, Dr. Seri analysed four scenarios that Thai farmers may encounter.
1. Normal scenario: Even when the situation is stable and the weather is normal, Thai farmers work hard but earn little due to the structure of rice prices and management, leading to very low yields compared to other rice-growing countries worldwide. The government’s boast that Thailand is a top rice exporter is misleading and stems from the large areas set aside for rice cultivation (approximately 27.67 million acres per year in both rainy and dry seasons) and the resultant need for a substantial amount of water (about 1,500 cubic meters for 0.93 acres of rice), resulting in overall production of approximately 32 million tons of paddy rice per year. However, the average yield per acre is only about 456 kilograms, significantly lower than many rice-producing and exporting countries such as Vietnam, India, China, and Australia.
2. Unpredictable weather: The La Niña phenomenon brings an abundance of water, which may lead to significant flooding, as experienced in 2011. Consequently, farmers increase their rice cultivation (by more than 3.16 million acres per year in both rainy and dry seasons), resulting in an overall production increase of 38 million tons of paddy rice per year.
However, this primarily benefits the rainy-season rice (643 kilograms per acre) while the dry-season rice is more vulnerable to damage from flooding, leading to only a slight increase in yield per acre. In this scenario, farmers face alternating periods of hardship and temporary prosperity.
3. Unstable weather: El Nino, on the other hand, causes a shortage of water, potentially leading to droughts, as experienced in 2015-2016 and 2019-2020. In this situation, farmers reduce their rice cultivation (about 23.72 million acres per year in both rainy and dry seasons, with a significant reduction in dry-season rice from 5.93 million acres to 1.98 million acres). Consequently, the overall rice production decreases from 32 to 26 million tons of paddy rice per year, particularly affecting dry-season rice, yielding 418 kilograms per acre. In this scenario, farmers face even more hardships.
4. Climate change: The future will bring increasing temperatures, decreased soil moisture, reduced rainfall, intensified evaporation, rising sea levels, and the possibility of experiencing all three weather scenarios (heat, drought, and floods) in a single year. The predictions for the next 100 years show that all three weather scenarios will continue to impact the Earth until around the year 2150, after which the severe El Nino events will gradually decrease but flooding and inundation will increase. Assessments indicate that the damage to rice, sugarcane, and cassava production will decrease by 13%, 35%, and 21%, respectively, per year over the next 50 years.
al strategies for Thai farmers amidst changing climatic conditions lie in comprehensive reforms and starting from the grassroots. They include strengthening resilience, increasing agricultural productivity, reducing water usage, improving soil and fertiliser management, adopting innovative solutions, and implementing crop insurance. Measures are also needed throughout the entire production process, including harvesting, transportation, storage, milling, and packaging, as well as marketing, export, and tax management, Dr Seri noted.
