El Niño is brewing – and that’s bad news for drought-prone Thailand
The arrival of El Niño this year is likely to drive global temperatures up to record levels in the next few years, according to scientists.
That’s bad news for drought-prone Thailand.
El Niño is triggered by a rise in surface temperatures of the eastern Pacific Ocean, leading to a phase of planet warming. The natural phenomenon usually occurs every two to seven years and brings reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia and southern Australia.
This can lead to intense and prolonged droughts in countries such as Thailand, severely affecting the backbone of the Thai economy, agriculture.
Tipping point for climate calamity
Meteorologists say that the La Niña phenomenon is now being replaced by an El Niño period expected to be more severe than in the past.
They forecast this shift will trigger a rise in the average global temperature of around 0.2C. Currently, global warming since the advent of industrialisation has already exceeded 1.2C.
El Niño is likely to heat the world close to the 1.5C warming that scientists reckon will be a tipping point for climate destruction.
Climate scientists are concerned that the effects of El Niño could be a significant turning point that leads to severe consequences such as heavy flooding, droughts, wildfires, and severe food shortages. Estimates indicate it could cost the global economy as much as US$3 trillion with impacts that may persist until 2029.
The toll of prolonged El Niño droughts could also expand to industry, where water demand can be high.
Food shortages and high prices
The longer that drought persists, the deeper its impacts. They include reduced food production, higher prices for agricultural produce, and an overall increase in the price of various goods.
The upcoming El Niño is expected to last until March 2024. The weather conditions will be hotter and drier than usual, but the impact will vary across different regions. These impacts will become clear from October onwards. The global economy is at risk and could suffer significant damage lasting until the year 2029, particularly in terms of food scarcity and expensive goods.
‘Hotter, drier Thailand’
El Niño usually leads to hotter conditions in Thailand during the dry season from December to February, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
It also brings drier conditions to the South of Thailand. Water shortages are already a longstanding problem across many areas of southern Thailand.
And from this year, El Niño looks set to exacerbate the effects of climate change.
All countries in this region are expected to face intensified heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires over the next 12 to 18 months when the weather phenomenon will prevail.
For Thailand, El Niño impacts are expected to have a harder impact than at any time during the past 74 years, wiping up to 7.5% off per-capita income, according to some estimates.
As one of the world’s leading agricultural producers, Thailand is especially vulnerable to drought. The National Water Resources Office says it has put in place long-term plans for this El Niño, including drilling artesian wells with a total volume of over 40 billion cubic metres. And if insufficient rainfall is collected during this wet season, it may request suspension of rice cultivation to maximise water storage for use during the dry season in 2025.
