How prolonged El Niño will affect Thai agricultural, aquatic, and fruit exports
A prolonged El Niño lasting into mid-2024 is expected to impact agricultural, aquatic, and fruit products, resulting in reduced exports from Thailand.
On Tuesday, the United Nations announced the arrival of El Niño, which is characterised by increased heat worldwide and drought conditions in some areas. Thailand can expect to see 5% less rainfall this year, and the situation may persist until mid-2024.
The damage this will do to Thai agriculture and crops is estimated at 10 billion to 30 billion baht.
In 2016, El Niño resulted in the loss of approximately 39,574 tonnes of food products in Thailand, with agriculture accounting for over one-third (14,532 tonnes) of losses.
Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) expects lower rainfall from El Niño to last from January of this year to June 2024.
It predicts the following impacts on crops this year:
Rice: Overall rice production will decrease by 0.6% to 0.9% or around 33.2 million tonnes compared with the previous year. Drought may have a significant impact on rice production in the second half of next year. Thai rice exports to major markets, such as Indonesia, Iraq, South Africa, the United States, and Japan, may fall by 7-8 million tonnes this year.
Cassava: Production is expected to drop from 34.98 million to 31.7 million tonnes due to scarcity of raw materials, leaf mosaic disease, and drought. Difficulties in sourcing seedlings for cultivation will also hit yields. Thailand has targeted total cassava exports of 9 million tonnes this year.
Durian and pineapple: Severe drought conditions with insufficient water in rivers and canals, especially in non-irrigated areas, are affecting the growth of durian trees, resulting in smaller fruits. The pineapple harvest may also be at risk, potentially dropping by 20%.
Shrimps: Exports will decline due to drought and increased disease surveillance. Farmers are reducing farming area and shrimp stocks, and delaying shrimp reproduction, which will lead to a 10-15% decrease in production.
Sugarcane: A lack of rainfall in May and June this year will significantly impact sugarcane production in the 2023-2024 season. Preliminary assessments suggest sugarcane production will drop by around 70-80 million tonnes.
Tuna: El Niño will result in higher sea temperatures, reducing fish catches and decreasing tuna production. Market supply will drop and prices are expected to rise.
Industry, which needs large supplies of water for production processes, is also expected to suffer amid El Niño-induced drought.
During the severe drought of 2015, all sectors had to collaborate to reduce water usage by 10%, and factories had to operate at a lower capacity, impacting the country's production capacity. The upcoming year indicates a higher likelihood of severe drought, making it essential to maximise water storage during the ongoing rainy season, Chaichan said.
