In their annual global climate analysis, the agency corroborated the conclusions of EU scientists, affirming that 2023 stood out as the warmest year since records began in 1850, with a deviation of 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. NOAA also highlighted a record high in the amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean for the same year.
On Friday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) concurred with NOAA's findings, confirming that 2023 had indeed set a new record. The WMO reported that the world's temperature had risen by 1.2°C (2.16°F) above the preindustrial average, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.
The record-breaking warmth was primarily attributed to climate change fueled by the combustion of fossil fuels, coupled with the influence of an El Nino climate pattern that emerged midway through the year. El Nino, a natural phenomenon resulting in warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and elevated global temperatures, is anticipated to persist until at least April, heightening the likelihood that 2024 may establish another temperature record.
Christopher Hewitt, WMO Head of International Climate Services, expressed uncertainty about what 2024 holds: "The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don't know yet." NOAA indicated a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, with a 99% chance of ranking among the five warmest on record.
Hewitt explained, "It's highly likely (El Nino) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we're not sure — it becomes less certain." The typical impacts of El Nino, peaking during the Northern Hemisphere's winter, might transition to neutral conditions or a La Nina phase, leading to cooler global temperatures. However, there is also the potential for El Nino to make a comeback.
Carlo Buontempo, Director of Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service, cautioned that if a transition to a La Nina phase occurs, "maybe 2024 might not be the warmest on record." With the Southern Hemisphere currently experiencing summer, authorities are on high alert for potential heatwaves, droughts, and fires.
This week, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued extreme heat alerts for Western Australia, and in southern Africa, concerns are rising about potential dry spells in January and February, with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall.
Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network, estimates that over 20 million people may require emergency food assistance.
Reuters