Prigozhin is counting on Putin going after him, says former US ambassador Kurt Volker

"I don't see how Putin can stay in power and have been shown to have caved to (Wagner Group founder Yevgeny) Prigozhin in this way. And therefore, I think he will go after him. And I think Prigozhin is counting on that. And that is something that I think he needs in order to, again, go after a bigger role in taking on the military apparatus of the country but being justified in doing it," he said.

Under the deal mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner group fighters returned to their bases in exchange for guarantees of their safety while Prigozhin will move to Belarus. Putin has not commented publicly since the deal was struck to de-escalate one of the biggest challenges since he rose to power more than two decades ago.

Former US General Philip Breedlove who headed the US European Command, said Putin will attempt to control the narrative about the events of the last 48 hours but is likely to exact revenge on Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"If I was Mr Prigozhin," Breedlove said, "I would invest in some really good security guards like others that have opposed Mr Putin. He'll either take a nosedive off the third-floor balcony or he'll get a polonium headache and be gone. But I think that Mr Putin is going to work hard to reconsolidate the vision that he's in control, all is calm and let's get back to killing Ukrainians."

Volker said it is possible Prigozhin will be or already has been arrested. Volker said Prigozhin will likely use any attempt to seek revenge by Putin as justification to challenge the Russian president further.

"If that happens and there is an attempt to go after Prigozhin, Prigozhin will publicize that and use that as justification for why he should be pushing back again and the military should join him in getting rid of Putin. I think that is the direction that this is likely to take over the next week or so," said Volker.

Putin said he was giving top priority to the conflict in Ukraine in excerpts from an interview aired by state television on Sunday (June 25), but it appeared to have been recorded before the mutiny and he made no reference to Saturday's events.

Breedlove said the events show cracks in Russia's institutions.

"So one of the outcomes I believe of the last 36 hours, maybe 48 hours, is that the institutions that we have long seen as being very secure in Russia are slowly unravelling," he said. "The whole institution of the military now, the appearance of what the Russian military is, is much diminished."

Volker said that in the short run, Ukraine, which is mounting an offensive against Russia to try to gain back territory, needs to use every advantage it can, but in the long run, Nato needs to consider allowing Ukraine to join.

"I think what Ukraine needs to do is press every advantage it has to use this moment to get its territory back. Then as this war eventually stabilizes and presumably on the border, I think Nato is going to have to come back to the idea of Ukrainian membership in Nato. Putin has only been willing to attack countries that are not members of Nato, and we don't see the end of this war that Ukraine is indeed a member of. And remember, it's a democratic country, the largest country in Europe, and it'll have the largest, most capable military in Europe. If we don't bring them into Nato as a member, Putin will be tempted to regroup and attack again if he's still in power," he said.

Reuters