Nato flexes muscle to protect Vilnius summit near Russia, Belarus

Lithuania has tripled the deployment of border guards at the Belarus and Russian borders for the summer, augmented by officers from Latvia and Poland. The two countries have also sent police to help patrol Vilnius.

At villages next to the Belarus border, locals told Reuters they feel totally safe, despite the Russian ally's offer to accommodate Russia's private Wagner militia and its hosting of Russian nuclear weapons.

At Vilnius airport, eight German-operated Patriot missile launchers were seen standing with their nozzles pointed in the direction of Russia's Kaliningrad. Two more pointed towards Belarus. All of the launchers were operational since Friday (July 7) morning.

Sixteen Nato allies have sent a total of about 1,000 troops to safeguard the July 11-12 summit, which will take place only 151 km (94 miles) from Russia itself. Many are also providing advanced air defense systems which the Baltic states lack.

Nato leaders gather in Vilnius this week aiming to overcome divisions on Ukraine's push for a path to membership and end Turkey's block on Sweden joining the transatlantic military alliance.

US President Joe Biden, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be among the 31 Nato leaders attending the summit in the small Baltic state.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is also expected to attend and to press for Ukraine to be admitted into Nato soon after the war triggered by Russia's invasion comes to an end.

Nato is expected to present a package of support to Ukraine at the summit, including an upgraded cooperation body, the Nato-Ukraine Council, and a bundle of non-lethal military aid to help Kyiv's armed forces to reform and reach Nato standards.

The invasion prompted Finland and Sweden to abandon decades of military non-alignment and apply to join Nato. In Vilnius, Finland will attend its first Nato summit as a member. But Sweden's accession has been held up by Turkey.

Turkey keeps Sweden waiting on Nato membership as key summit nears

Sweden's path to Nato membership remains blocked by Turkey and Hungary.

Finland, which applied together with Sweden, joined Nato in April, but Turkey continues to block Swedish membership citing security concerns. Ankara has said Sweden must crack down on anti-Turkey protests before getting a green light to join Nato.

Unlike Turkey, Hungary does not have a list of demands but says grievances need to be addressed before it can ratify Sweden's accession to Nato.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year convinced Sweden and Finland to ditch long-held policies of military non-alignment.

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom has been busy meeting a host of Nato allies in recent weeks to ensure Stockholm's membership bid remains top of the agenda.

The Nordic country has set its sights on joining at the alliance's July 11-12 summit and while it has strong support from other members including the United States and more talks with Turkey are expected, there have been few clear signs of a breakthrough. On July 6, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Sweden had failed to convince Turkey to lift its block on Stockholm's path to Nato membership.

Zelenskiy hopes to "expedite" solutions with partners at upcoming Nato summit

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he hopes to "expedite" solutions on various decisions facing members of Nato during this week's Nato summit in Lithuania.

Zelenskiy also told ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" that he would like to see the counteroffensive against Russia proceed more quickly, but added that the Ukrainians continue "advancing." John Kirby, the National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, told ABC that the cluster bombs the US has promised to give Ukraine are intended for bolstering the counteroffensive and "keeping Ukraine in the fight."

The US said on Friday (July 7) that it would supply Kyiv with the widely banned bombs as part of a new US$800 million security package that brings total US military aid to more than US$40 billion since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has welcomed the US decision, saying it would help liberate Ukrainian territory, but promised the munitions would not be used in Russia.

In Nato’s new north, fresh chances to contain Moscow

High above a railway bridge spanning a foaming river just outside the Arctic Circle, Finnish construction workers hammer away at a project that will smooth the connections from Nato's Atlantic coastline in Norway to its new border with Russia.

This short stretch of rail is the only rail link between Sweden and Finland.

As the alliance reshapes its strategy in response to Russia's campaign, access to these new territories and their infrastructure opens ways for allies to watch and contain Moscow, and an unprecedented chance to treat the whole of northwest Europe as one bloc, nearly two dozen diplomats and military and security experts told Reuters.

Finland relies heavily on maritime freight for all its supplies – customs data shows almost 96% of its foreign trade is carried across the Baltic.

If there was a conflict with Russia in the Baltic Sea area – where Russia has significant military capabilities at St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad – the shipping lane Nato used for that exercise would be vulnerable.

The east-west railway link across the high north will open up an alternative, which could prove crucial.

But that risk, too, may recede when Sweden joins Nato.

Sweden's contribution will, by 2028, include a new generation of submarines in the Baltic Sea that Commander of Sweden's First Submarine Flotilla, Fredrik Linden says will make a big difference in protecting vulnerable seabed infrastructure and preserving access – currently major security headaches, as the September 2022 destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines showed.

The Gotland, one of four submarines currently in Sweden’s fleet which would bring Nato’s total in the Baltic countries to 12 by 2028, will be among Nato’s most advanced non-nuclear submarines and can stay out of port for significantly longer than other conventional models, the researcher Bruns said.

Both developments show how the expanded alliance will reshape Europe's security map. The region from the Baltic in the south to the high north may become almost an integrated operating area for Nato.

"For Nato it's quite important to have now the whole northern part, to see it as a whole piece," Lieutenant Colonel Michael Maus from Nato's Allied Command Transformation told Reuters. He chaired the working group which led Finland's military integration into Nato.

This became clear in May, when Finland hosted its first Arctic military exercise as a Nato member at one of Europe's largest artillery training grounds 25 km above the Arctic Circle.

The nearby town of Rovaniemi, known to tourists as the home of Santa Claus, is also the base of Finland's Arctic air force and would serve as a military hub for the region in case of a conflict. Finland is investing some 150 million euros to renew the base to be able to host half a new fleet of 64 F-35 fighter jets, due to arrive in 2026.