Apec posts lower economic growth, weaker trade activity

The region’s economy is expected to pick up in the short term with the gross domestic product (GDP) projected to expand by 3.1 Apec this year.

“The combination of an enduring pandemic, high inflation coupled with rising interest rates and debts, as well as the ongoing geopolitical issues resulted in a significant slowdown in the global economy during 2022,” explained Carlos Kuriyama, the newly appointed director for the Apec Policy Support Unit.

“Both consumers and investors were cautious last year due to uncertainties and the gloomy economic outlook,” Kuriyama continued. “As a result, demand and investment activities progressed slowly.”

Inflation in Apec reached 5.8 % in 2022. This is the highest inflation rate since the financial crisis in 2008 when it peaked at 6.6 %. The report projects Apec’s inflation to taper down to 3.9 % this year, declining further to 2.7 % in 2024.

“The sustained and broad-based increase in prices promoted an aggressive and synchronized response from monetary authorities across the world,” said Rhea C. Hernando, a senior researcher with the Policy Support Unit. “In Apec, we are seeing the majority of central banks increase interest rates to dampen price pressures.”

Rising uncertainties also weakened merchandise trade in Apec during the first nine months of 2022. Growth in the volume of Apec’s merchandise exports was flat, while merchandise imports grew by 4.3 % compared to the same period last year when these expanded by 14.4 % and 16.1 % respectively.

Meanwhile, the value of the merchandise trade’s exports and imports grew by 14.5 %, showing more resilience due to relatively high energy prices in 2022, driven in turn by supply shocks.

“We expect a modest growth of trade volumes in Apec this year, following the slowdown in global demand” Kuriyama added.

In contrast, commercial services trade performed better in 2022, with exports and imports growing by 13 % and 15.6 % respectively in the second quarter of last year. The strong expansion in trade in this sector was propelled by travel services, which increased by 60 % as economies progressively reopened borders and relaxed Covid-19 restrictions.

Officials from the 21 Apec member economies are convening in Palm Springs, California, to kick off the first technical meeting cluster of Apec 2023. The United States is hosting Apec this year and will drive the forum’s agenda under the theme “Creating a Resilient and Sustainable Future for All.”

“Taking advantage of the upcoming meetings in Palm Springs, member economies should prioritize efforts to coordinate clear and consistent policies,” Kuriyama said. “Coordinated macroeconomic policies play an important role in addressing the rising cost of living”.

“In addition, keeping trade free, fair and open, and boosting trade facilitation could reduce the pressure on food and energy prices considerably, mitigating the adverse impact on food security and poverty levels” he continued.

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