Thai economy poised for growth in 2024, fueled by tourism and export

This will be supported by a rebound in tourism, a recovery in exports, and continued growth in domestic consumption.

Overall, the Thai economy continues to recover, buoyed by private consumption expansion, particularly in service spending, along with improved employment and income.

Key factors driving growth

Tourism: The tourism sector is expected to make a strong recovery in 2024, with foreign tourist arrivals projected to reach at least 30 million. This will boost growth in the hospitality, transportation and retail sectors.

Exports: Exports are expected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, supported by a moderate expansion in the global economy. The recovery in exports will be particularly strong in the electronics and automotive sectors.

Domestic consumption: Domestic consumption is expected to remain a key driver of growth in 2024. Private consumption is forecast to grow by 3.5%, supported by rising wages and employment. Government consumption is also expected to make a positive contribution to growth, as the government continues to invest in infrastructure projects.
Inflation outlook

Inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Thailand's target range of 1-3% in 2024. The government's measures to ease energy and food prices are expected to help keep inflation in check.
 

Potential risks
A slowdown in the global economy: If the global economy slows down more than expected, this could hurt Thailand's exports.
A resurgence of Covid-19: If there is a resurgence of Covid-19, this could disrupt tourism and economic activity.
Political instability: Political instability could deter investment and damage confidence in the economy.

Overall, the Thai economy is expected to grow moderately in 2024. The outlook is positive, but there are some risks that could derail the recovery.

Economists recommend the government continue to focus on measures to support domestic consumption and investment. The government should also continue to monitor inflation closely and take action if necessary to keep it within the target range. The private sector should focus on improving productivity and innovation in order to remain competitive in the global market.
 

Global economic outlook for 2024

The global economy is expected to slow in 2024, as the effects of tighter monetary policy and ongoing wars, particularly in Ukraine, continue to ripple through the world. However, the slowdown is expected to be relatively mild, with global GDP growth forecast to be around 2.6%. Inflation is also expected to ease, but it is likely to remain above central bank targets in many countries.

Key factors are tighter monetary policy and conflicts in Ukraine. Central banks around the world are raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This is expected to slow economic growth, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about spending and investment.

As supply chains were disrupted and energy prices soared by conflicts in Ukraine, this has put upward pressure on inflation and has also weighed on economic activity.

Regional outlook

Advanced economies: Advanced economies are expected to see a more pronounced slowdown in growth in 2024. The United States is forecast to grow by 2.2%, while the eurozone is expected to grow by 1.7%. This is due to the fact that advanced economies are more exposed to the effects of tighter monetary policy.

Emerging markets: Emerging markets are expected to continue to grow at a faster pace than advanced economies in 2024. China is forecast to grow by 5.2%, while India is expected to grow by 6.7%. This is due to the fact that emerging economies are generally less reliant on exports and have more room for fiscal stimulus.

Inflation outlook

Inflation is expected to ease in 2024, but it is likely to remain above central bank targets in many countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that global inflation will be 4.8% in 2024. This is down from 6.8% in 2023, but it is still above the IMF's target of 2%.

Potential risks
Further escalation of the war in Ukraine: This could lead to a more severe disruption of supply chains and a further increase in energy prices.

Sharper-than-expected slowdown in China: China is a major driver of global growth, and a slowdown in the Chinese economy could have a ripple effect on the rest of the world.

Financial crisis: The combination of high debt levels, rising interest rates, and slowing economic growth could lead to a financial crisis in some countries.
Overall, the global economic outlook for 2024 is uncertain, but there are more risks to the downside than to the upside.

Economists suggest policymakers should continue to monitor inflation closely and take action if necessary to bring it back down to target. Governments should also take steps to support vulnerable households and businesses as the economy slows down. The private sector should focus on improving productivity and innovation in order to remain competitive in the global market.

In addition to the factors discussed above, there are a number of other trends that could affect the global economy in 2024. These include the rise of the digital economy, the transition to a green economy, and geopolitics.

Global economy is a complex system, and it is difficult to predict with certainty how it will evolve in the years to come. However, by understanding the key trends and risks that are shaping the global economy, policymakers and businesses can make informed decisions that will help them to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Jerome Aning 

Philippine Daily Inquirer

Asia News Network