Multiple intense national elections to dominate in 2024

Two being watched closely are in the United States and Russia, with much speculation about whether Donald Trump, the former US president, could make a comeback. Whether anyone will dare to challenge Vladimir Putin is also much discussed.

Below we highlight some of the most important elections to take place in 2024, where the outcomes could have a global impact and influence significant changes.

Taiwan - January 13

The first crucial election of the year is already looking like one of the most intense contests.

Taiwan is seen as strategically significant for both the United States and China. In the latest polls, Lai Ching-te, 64, vice president and candidate of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), leads the race.

He is followed by Hou Yu-ih, 66, the mayor of New Taipei City from the major opposition party Kuomintang (KMT). Another main contender is Ko Wen-je, from the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), a relatively new face in national politics. He hopes to gain votes from those who are disillusioned with both major parties.

Indonesia - February 14

Over 200 million people will cast their votes in what is considered the world’s largest direct presidential election.

The three candidates are Prabowo Subianto, the former minister of defence; Ganjar Pranowo, the former governor of Central Java; and Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta.

They are battling to replace the incumbent president, Joko Widodo, who has completed the maximum allowed two terms in office.

Widodo’s eldest son, Jibran Rakabuming, is running for the vice presidential post, alongside Prabowo after a court ruled that the 36-year-old could run despite the law setting the minimum age at 40. This sparked heavy criticism and concern that the public would not have confidence in Indonesia’s political institutions.

Russia - March 17

Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to hold onto power for another six years after leading Russia for 24 years. On December 8, he announced his candidacy for the presidential election, seeking a fifth term that would extend his rule until 2030.

In 2023, Russia amended its constitution, allowing Putin to potentially stay in power until 2036. If he can hold on, Putin could have a longer reign than Joseph Stalin.

Challenging Putin’s leadership seems difficult as he has implemented measures to suppress or silence potential contenders and opposition. It appears unlikely that anyone would emerge to challenge Putin’s path to power, indicating that this trajectory is reserved for Putin alone.

South Korea - April 10

The upcoming April elections for the National Assembly in South Korea will be a crucial determinant for the fate of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s government. Since assuming the presidency last year, Yoon has faced legislative challenges as his People Power Party lacks a majority in the 298-seat National Assembly.

The opposition party currently hold 167 seats, and to govern effectively, Yoon needs to secure additional votes in April.

South Korean politics has been undergoing rapid changes, and much can evolve between now and April. But Yoon’s popularity hovers around 35% and his presidency so far lacks standout achievements that could potentially boost his approval.

India - April to May

General elections in the world’s most populous and largest democratic nation, India, will span several weeks in April and May.

With a population of 1.4 billion people, India sees a significant portion of its electorate still favouring Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 73 years old, and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

This presents a challenge for the opposition to grow.

The opposition is therefore working to consolidate support from 24 parties, forming a coalition known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which includes the Congress party — the major opposition party — aiming to return to power.

Mexico - June 2

Claudia Sheinbaum, the former left-wing mayor of Mexico City and a businesswoman of indigenous descent, is poised to make history in Mexico. She is on the verge of becoming the country’s first female president, breaking a tradition of male leaders predominating throughout history.

Sheinbaum is expected to run as a candidate under the Morena party, led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and is seen as having a strong chance of winning.

United States - November 5

American voters may have the opportunity to witness a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The result could potentially see Biden continue in the White House until the age of 86.

However many opinion polls indicate that most people think Democrat Biden is too old to be the leader of the country.

Also, Trump faces serious legal challenges, including regarding his role in the January 6, 2020 insurrection.

Some states have issued bans to disqualify Trump’s name from being on the ballot in the 2024 election.

Those bans are being appealed and the final decision on these matters may rest with the Supreme Court, thus adding uncertainty as to whether both Biden and Trump will ultimately participate in the election.