Political experts see no path for Pita to become PM

They spoke to Nation TV on Friday, a day after Pita failed to win in the first round of parliament's vote for prime minister.

Despite being the lone candidate, Pita was unable to secure majority support from parliamentarians, falling short of the 375 votes required.

As a result, the second round of voting for Prime Minister is set for July 19.

In the opinion of six political experts — Krisada Boonraung, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Kittisak Ratanawaraha, Olarn Thinbangteo, Chettha Sapyen, and Yuttaporn Issarachai — Pita's chances of winning the second round of the PM vote next week are bleak.

They attribute some of his party's policies that are unpalatable to old-school and conservative politicians as the main reason for their reluctance to vote for him.

Meanwhile, some analysts have pointed out that there are legal processes underway to remove Pita from Thai politics, especially the case over his ownership of media stock and his party’s pledge to amend Article 112 of the criminal code on lese majeste.

Krisada, a senior political analyst, said even if Pita becomes Thailand's 30th prime minister, his tenure may be brief due to legal issues.

Pita and his party should now remain silent and closely communicate with their supporters in order to avoid using emotional responses to any opponents, he said.

He advised Pita's party to forego the PM position this time and instead work as an opposition party until the next election, which could be held in the next 1-2 years.

He believes Move Forward will win the next election by a landslide and can easily form the government.

Thitinan, a Thai political scientist and professor of International Studies at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science, disagreed.

He believes Pita and Move Forward will struggle to form a government even after the next election.

They might win, but they might face the same obstacles as they do now, he said.

Thitinan expects some senators to walk out of the next week's voting, while the Constitutional Court may order Pita to stop working if it rules him guilty of holding media stock.

He expressed the hope that all relevant parties would form a new government that, regardless of who they are, would lead the country in the right direction.

Thailand's development already lags behind that of its neighbours, he observed.

He believes the new government will be at least better than the previous one.

Meanwhile, National Legislative Assembly member Kittisak agreed with Thitinan that the second round of PM voting would be marred by senators walking out.

As a result, Pita's bid to become PM would remain a pipe dream.

Although all eight coalition parties are holding hands tightly, they may persuade Move Forward to drop Pita as PM candidate and choose an alternative from the coalition parties, he said, suggesting Srettha Thavisin or Paetongtarn Shinawatra from Pheu Thai as viable options.

Kittisak also advised the new PM candidate to assure senators and other opponents that Article 112 would not be touched.

According to Burapa University political scientist Olarn, certain conditions will occur before the next vote that will make a victory for Pita more difficult.

He pointed out that some new signals would emerge during this period, leading to a change in PM candidate.

Chettha Sapyen, former director of The Nation Poll, also expected senators to walk out, effectively ending Pita's chance to become Thailand's new prime minister, dashing the hopes of many voters.

He said that in the next six days, the Pheu Thai Party would meet with Move Forward to find a suitable solution so that both parties could finally form a cabinet.

He agreed with the other experts that a new PM candidate could come from Pheu Thai.

According to Yuttaporn Issarachai, a Thai political scientist from Sukhothai Thammathirat University, the possibility of a new candidate replacing Pita is greater than Pita winning the vote.

Meanwhile, another possibility he sees is of Pheu Thai forming the government without Move Forward, by joining hands with parties in the outgoing government, such as Palang Pracharath and Bhumjaithai.

He suggested that any option would be good, except collaborating with outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, because that would lead to widespread protests.

Whatever the outcome of the second round of voting, the six analysts believe the eight coalition party will present some solutions that will finally move Thailand forward.

Asked about the possibility of large demonstrations by Pita's supporters, they noted that there could be some protests, but not as large and intense as in the past. They said people were cautious about not creating a situation that would lead to another coup.

Pita, for his part, may have to work harder to win.