Analysis: Move Forward’s rise could be a step back to 2019
The two leading opposition parties are likely to win more than half of the House seats in the May 14 general election, but the leading party of the establishment could pick up more seats than expected if they split the liberal vote, the director of the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) said on Wednesday.
Nida director Suwicha Pao-aree said the rising popularity of the Move Forward Party is drawing votes away from its fellow opposition party, Pheu Thai, and this could help their archrival, the Untied Thai Nation Party, win more constituency MPs.
He made the comment on Wednesday, after Nida Poll released its third and final nationwide survey of eligible voters before the May 14 election.
The latest survey indicated that the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties are on track to win more than 250 House seats between them.
Suwicha said that despite its rising popularity, Move Forward will not be popular enough to beat Pheu Thai candidates in many constituencies.
Moreover, in constituencies where the two opposition parties are running neck and neck, UTNP may squeak through if its liberal rivals split the vote and conservative voters unite behind it, he said.
Consequently, in terms of the number of MPs, the UTNP could end up closer to Pheu Thai and Move Forward despite its low level of support.
The latest Nida Poll surveyed 2,500 eligible voters nationwide from April 24 to 28.
Pheu Thai remained the most popular party in both constituency and party-list elections, followed by Move Forward and UTNP, the survey found.
For the constituency election, the Pheu Thai received 38.32% support while Move Forward received 33.96% and the UTNP had 12.08%.
For the party-list election, Pheu Thai received 37.92% support, Move Forward received 35.36% and the UTNP 12.84%.
Voters cannot directly elect the prime minister, but can express their preference by voting for the party of the candidate for prime minister.
Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat surpassed Pheu Thai prime minister candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra for the first time as the most popular PM candidate, Nida Poll found.
Pita was the top choice of 35.44% of respondents. Paetongtarn’s support fell to 29.20%.
UTNP PM candidate General Prayut Chan-o-cha was third with 14.84%, while Pheu Thai’s second PM candidate, Srettha Thavisin, was fourth with 6.76%.
Paetongtarn’s strategy to increase her popularity and gain public sympathy by continuing to campaign while she was pregnant may have failed, some observers said.
Others put her declining popularity down to holding fewer rallies and giving the appearance that the baton had been passed on to Srettha.
Srettha’s low level of popularity may be due to his combative campaign style. Many pundits have said that his aggressive attacks on rivals, including the Bhumjaithai Party for its lead in legalising marijuana, have turned off Thai voters.
Pheu Thai won more MP seats than any other party in 2019, but the coalition that formed around Prayut – along with the support of an unelected Senate – opened a door for him to be elected prime minister in a vote by members of both chambers.
Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward are urging voters to support them to prevent this from happening again, saying Thailand's democratic future is at risk.
