Analysis: Newin hints at coalition with Pheu Thai in next election

This classic quote was recently made by Newin Chidchob, the shadow leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, in a strong hint that the Bhumjaithai could form a coalition government with the Pheu Thai Party, whose shadow leader Thaksin Shinawatra was once betrayed by him.

Newin made the statement in his interview with ThaiPBS on Christmas Eve when he presided over the opening ceremony of "New Year 2023 Countdown" in his province of Buri Ram. The event was held at the Chang Arena in Muang district of the province, and it will continue until January 1.

In the interview, Newin talked about his perception of the outcome and the situation after the next general election, which has been tentatively scheduled on May 7 provided the House of Representatives stays until it completes its four-year term on March 22.

“In Thailand and Thai politics, there are no permanent friends or foes. Believe me,” Newin said. “What matters the most is how the people will vote on election day. The election results will become the most crucial mechanism that will force political parties and politicians to realise what the people want.”

He added that the polarisation of Thai politics must be a thing of the past.

“Stop thinking about continuing to divide politics along the polarised lines. If our politics will remain polarised, our country will go nowhere,” Newin said.

He said he would not return to lead the Bhumjaithai but he would continue to play his role as an adviser like how former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is “not related to” Pheu Thai.

Political observers consider Newin as much a shadow leader of Bhumajaithai as Thaksin is of Pheu Thai.

Since he will not be returning to lead the Bhumjaithai, Newin said there was no reason to prevent Bhumjaithai from working with Pheu Thai in the same coalition government.

Newin indicated that the coldness in his relationship with Thaksin should not be a reason to prevent cooperation between the two parties.

“Who runs Pheu Thai? Who sets the policies of the party? Who manages the party? If the current party leader, the executive board and core members run the Pheu Thai, why should they have any conflict with Anutin [Charnvirakul, Bhumjaithai leader]? Even Thaksin and Anutin have no conflict towards each other,” Newin said.

He said the conflicts of the past should be left behind and the only thing that must be considered is whether the current executives of the Pheu Thai have any conflicts with Anutin.

“Don’t count me in. I’m not related to Bhumjaithai. I’m just their headmaster. I’m just Uncle Newin,” he said.

Thaksin has also repeatedly made similar statements during his live Club House talks that he is just an adviser and supporter of Pheu Thai.

Newin came out to give a strong hint of cooperation between the two parties following unconfirmed reports that he had recently met Thaksin in London to mend their sour ties.

Political gurus believe Newin, who has a strong political hunch, realises which party would win the next general election.

Most opinion surveys have found Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, to be the most popular choice for prime minister while the Pheu Thai has the strongest political support. The surveys also found that the popularity of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the ruling Palang Pracharath Party was on the decline.

There have been strong reasons for Newin to publicly distance himself from Bhumjaithai and secretly mend his ties with Thaksin.

In 2001, Newin became a political lieutenant of Thaksin after Newin’s father, Chai Chidchob, personally asked Thaksin for a chance for his son to grow in his political career.

But in late 2008, Newin backstabbed Thaksin by leading a group of 23 MPs under his control to support then Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to form a coalition government. On that day, Newin made a classic political phrase that said “It’s over, master”.

But his betrayal led to Bhumjaithai’s election defeat in 2011. Newin then distanced himself from politics to become the manager of the Buri Ram United and led the team to fame.

In 2017, Newin changed the image of Bhumjaithai into a neutral party that does not join any side of the polarised politics and he entrusted the leadership of Bhumjaithai to Anutin, to reduce the atmosphere of confrontation with the big boss of Pheu Thai, Thaksin. Anutin is known as a person who could talk to Thaksin and he used to visit Thaksin in Dubai following the coup in 2014.

This strategy seemed to be fruitful as Bhumjaitha captured 12 party-list House seats and 39 constituency House seats in the 2019 election, compared to 5 party-list seats and 34 constituency seats in the 2011 election.

It is yet to be seen whether Newin’s gesture of holding out the olive branch to Thaksin would be fruitful next year.

By The Political Desk