Declining birthrates will see Thailand’s population drop by half in next 60 years
Thailand is grappling with a looming demographic crisis, with experts suggesting that the country’s population will shrink by half over the next six decades.
This alarming decline has sparked calls for making childbirths part of the national agenda.
Multiple factors contribute to the dropping birth rates in Thailand, including economic, societal, educational and environmental concerns that deter people from having children. Health-related issues account for only 10% of the birth rate decrease.
Public Health Minister Dr Cholnan Srikaew said the decline in Thailand’s birthrate has hit critical levels. The number of newborns has dropped from over 1 million per year from 1963 to 1983, to just 485,085 newborns versus 550,042 deaths in 2021. This resulted in a net population decrease of 64,957 that year.
This trend aligns with Thailand’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which has been below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman since 1993.
In 2022, Thailand’s TFR was as low as 1.16 in nearly every province, except Yala, which bucked the trend with a TFR of 2.27.
A significant turning point is expected in 2023 when the working-age population (ages 20-24) is expected to fall short in compensating for the individuals leaving the workforce (ages 60-64).
This shift will create a widening gap between those entering and exiting the working-age bracket, raising concerns about labour shortages, increased dependency on working-age people, and higher healthcare expenses for the elderly.
“Thailand’s total population will drop from 66 million to 33 million by 2083. The working-age population [ages 15 to 64] will drop from 44 million to just 14 million. Children [ages 0-14] will drop from 10 million to just 1 million, while the elderly [age 65+] will rise from 8 million to 18 million, making up 50% of the country’s total population,” warned demography specialist Kue Wongbunsin.
“If the population decline continues like this and the working-age population continues shrinking, the government will face challenges in collecting taxes to support the country’s development.”
