Thailand’s economy to grow by 3.6% in 2023, riding on tourism recovery: UTCC

The president of the UTCC and adviser to the university’s Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, Thanavath Phonvichai, said the number of tourists visiting Thailand is expected to increase from 11 million this year to 22 million people in 2023, while the nation’s exports are slowing down due to a decline in trade partners’ purchasing power.

“Exports are expected to recover by the third quarter of next year,” he said. “In addition, investment from the public sector is also a factor that will bolster Thailand's economy as production bases are shifted to several Asean countries, including Thailand.”

He said the nation’s economy was predicted to grow by 3.3% this year, driven by the tourism sector after Covid restrictions were eased, which has brought an influx of tourists to the country, while exports continue to thrive.

UTCC has forecast that in 2023, Thailand’s export and import growth will be 1.2% and 2.2% respectively while investment from the public sector will expand by 3.2%.

He said inflation in the country would increase by 3% if the global and national economy follow these conditions: global trade volume rises by 2.5%, the global economy grows by 2.7%, 22-24 million people visit Thailand, currency rate stays at 35.95 baht to the US. dollar, crude oil from Dubai remains at US$92.50 per barrel, and the policy interest rate stays at 1.25-2%.

“The relief in the Covid-19 situation in the country, the return of tourists, improvement in the agricultural sector, and especially the election scheduled to take place next year will all help generate revenue for the country,” he said.

However, he said there is uncertainty about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising energy and commodity prices, central banks’ interest rate hike to deal with inflation, volatility in financial markets and global economic recession, which could pressure Thailand’s economic growth.