AI to help predict solar flares

The National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) currently forecasts solar flares by identifying the locations of sunspots using a radio telescope, and detecting magnetic anomalies in the atmosphere and other unusual factors via an observation device. The current prediction accuracy is said to be about 50 percent.

 In January, the NICT announced that it successfully conducted an experiment to increase the accuracy of its forecast by having AI learn 300,000 images of sunspots. However, the current observation device can only store about several months’ worth of information on sunspots and magnetism.

 With the help of AI, the government intends to increase the device’s capacity to allow it to store at least several years’ worth of data.
 The government also plans to build another Space Weather Forecast Center under the NICT somewhere in a provincial area — the existing center is in Koganei, western Tokyo — and install a backup antenna there that would be linked to the observation device to allow for continued monitoring in the event of a large-scale disaster hitting the Tokyo metropolitan area.

 A solar flare that was generated on Sept. 6 emitted high-temperature gas that took two days to reach Earth. The NICT issued an alert concerning the phenomenon on Sept. 7.

 The Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry believes that improving forecast technology will help the institute release more accurate information in advance. The ministry has requested ¥100 million for enhancing the observation device in its supplementary budget request for the current fiscal year.

 In October 2003, the largest solar flare to have been recorded at that time caused problems with a Japanese satellite, as well as a major power outage in Sweden. Solar activities are said to intensify about every 11 years; the next peak is estimated to be in the mid-2020s. Solar flares could occur frequently during that period, and countries are making efforts to cope with the phenomenon.

 The government aims to cooperate with other countries on the issue.

■Solar flare

A large-scale explosion occurring around a dark area on the sun’s surface known as a sunspot. The explosion emits strong X-rays, high-temperature gases — which carry electrified particles — and others. They collide with Earth’s atmosphere and affect the planet’s magnetism. This phenomenon sometimes causes errors in Global Positioning System and failures at power stations that lead to blackouts.