Climate change and its impact on Thailand

Thailand emits less than 1% of global greenhouse gases but ranks among the 10 countries most severely affected by climate change. This is a significant reason why Thais should be concerned about global climate issues.

A 2021 study by Swiss Re Institute projects Thailand's GDP could decline 43.6% by 2048 due to temperature increases of up to 3.2°C.

Climate change is forecast to take a severe toll on Thai tourism, shifting patterns towards nighttime activities while having a different effect according to location.

Tourism on the popular Andaman coast will benefit from shorter rainy seasons, allowing for longer periods of tourist activity. However, water shortages in this region may become more severe.

In contrast, tourism in the Gulf of Thailand will face increased rainfall and rainy seasons expanded by up to two weeks, which could lead to impacts including coastal erosion from storms.

In northern Thailand, the number of cool days is expected to drop by five-10 days per year over the next 20 years and by over 20 days in 50 years, impacting the region as cool weather is a major attraction for domestic tourists.

National parks and reserved deciduous or mixed forests will be at higher risk of wildfires due to hotter and drier conditions. The eastern region will experience the hottest weather in the country.

Bangkok and its suburbs, meanwhile, are among the 10 provinces at the highest risk of flooding due to increasing rainfall in the Chao Phraya River Basin during the rainy season, compounded by construction obstructing water flows.

Thailand aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065, as announced by then-PM Prayut Chan-o-cha at the 2021 UN Climate Conference in Glasgow.

With international cooperation and support, the country hopes to enhance its efforts and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

But experts note that Thailand’s plans to address global warming remain vague, with a lack of widespread incentives, both financial and motivational, for producers and consumers to adapt.

Experts consider state policies to be the most critical yet uncertain factors for Thailand’s environmental outlook, according to the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). These critical factors include issues of clarity, continuity, and standard-setting.

Effective and serious enforcement, along with integration and collaboration across different sectors, and the development and promotion of environmental technologies and infrastructure are crucial for sustainable development and mitigating impacts.

The impact of climate change is highly uncertain and varies by region. Low-income groups may face greater challenges as they are less able to relocate from high-risk areas compared with higher-income individuals.
Centralised management and the use of uniform standards across diverse ecosystems can complicate and reduce the effectiveness of climate change management. A flexible approach is preferable as it mitigates risks more effectively.

For future climate adaptation, decentralising power to local governments to engage in climate management is crucial.

Addressing global warming cannot rely solely on state policies; consumer behaviour changes are essential to drive market mechanisms towards environmental friendliness. When market mechanisms are effective, they prompt responses from producers.

Changes in consumer behaviour related to energy use, waste disposal, and household waste are actions everyone can take today to help mitigate global warming.

Prof Mingsarn Kaosa-ard is chairman of the Public Policy Institute Foundation.