In a Wall Street Journal commentary published last Tuesday, Bolton recommended an increase in US military sales to Taiwan and the relocation of American military personnel and assets to the island.
“Washington might also help ease tensions with Tokyo by redeploying at least some US forces from Okinawa, a festering problem in the US-Japan relationship,” wrote the former US envoy to the United Nations.
According to Bolton, Taiwan’s location – closer to the East Asian mainland and the contested South China Sea than either Okinawa or Guam – would give US forces “greater flexibility for rapid deployment throughout the region should the need arise. In recent years, American and Chinese naval vessels have shadowed each other in the South China Sea amid rising assertiveness by Beijing, including the establishment of military outposts on reclaimed islets in the strategic waterway.”
Of course, Bolton isn’t recommending Douglas MacArthur’s view of Taiwan as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”, or proposing renegotiating the mutual defence treaty with Taipei. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 is expansive enough, enshrining the US commitment to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capability. And legal and security experts say that neither US nor international law prevents President Donald Trump from stationing US troops and military assets in Taiwan.
Bolton wants to help Japan and its prefecture of Okinawa – where the bulk of US forces are stationed – and make Taiwan a link in Washington’s containment of mainland China.
Resentment against the American military presence is rising in Okinawa, driven by concerns over crime and by an unpopular plan to build a new Marine Corps airfield in the north of the island. A mere sliver of Japan’s total landmass, Okinawa is home to about half of the American soldiers and sailors stationed in the Land of the Rising Sun, with their bases taking up about three-quarters of the island as de facto US territory.
Okinawa Governor Takeshi Onaga is seeking to forge a broad political coalition to reduce the United States’ presence. But he is opposed by the government in Tokyo, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, an ultra-conservative who has been working to strengthen ties with Washington. Abe argues that any perceived weakening of the alliance would only embolden Japan’s regional rival, China. Onaga hails from the same Liberal Democratic Party as Abe, but broke with it over the base issue.
How would Bolton’s proposal, if implemented, affect Taiwan? First and foremost, Taipei would suffer Beijing’s ire if the deal goes through.
China will consider it provocative, perhaps prompting its long threatened attack on Taiwan, while the United States could not back Taiwan’s security even if American forces were stationed there. There is no guarantee that Uncle Sam would come to Taiwan’s rescue.
Another gift from the deal for Taiwan would be relegation to the status of Washington’s bargaining chip in negotiations with Beijing on Trump’s “one-China” policy. Beijing has angrily insisted that this is non-negotiable.
Trump disagrees and has already raised the prospect of using Taiwan as a bargaining chip in Sino-US relations. “Everything is under negotiation, including ‘one China’,” said the new president.