Asia’s good to bad IN 2016: The year and pivot that was

In 2016, we saw Thailand say farewell to a revered monarch, India move against corruption via “demonetisation” and a Korean mobile phone giant stumble. We also looked further east, across the Pacific, to an outgoing US president and a fading pivot and partnership. We review the year that was.
Worst Year: The US pivot to Asia
The winner of the dubious distinction of worst year in Asia goes to President Barack Obama for a “US pivot to Asia” that was increasingly seen as more rhetoric than reality even before November’s elections.
The pivot was described as a strategic rebalance, shifting US diplomatic and military resources to the world’s most dynamic economic region. At its economic heart would be an ambitious trade deal, a Trans-Pacific Partnership linking 12 Pacific Rim nations accounting for 40 per cent of world trade. The US, not China, would help “write the rules”, Obama declared, through this “gold standard” of trade deals.
All that was not to be. First, one-time TPP proponent Hillary Clinton turned her back on the deal. And then, Trump’s election drove a stake into it. The president-elect has said among his first actions in office will be to withdraw the United States from the TPP in favour of “fair bilateral trade deals”.
Oversold, under-delivered and now trumped: the Pivot to Asia.
Bad Year: South Korean President Park Geun-hye
In South Korea, it has been a bad year for embattled Park Geun-hye, who is being impeached over a still unfolding scandal that could well have been penned by a Hollywood screenwriter. Allegations of corruption and slush funds mix with tales of cult-like rituals and influence linked to a mysterious, close friend now on trial, Choi Soon-sil, daughter of a deceased religious figure. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets calling for the president’s resignation.
Park barely beats out another contender from South Korea for “bad year” in Asia – Samsung Electronics for its now discontinued Galaxy Note 7.
The smartphone was seen as a worthy challenger to Apple’s iPhone. Any such aspirations in 2016, literally and figuratively, went down in flames. Battery problems causing some Galaxy Note 7s to spontaneously combust put the “must have” phone on a permanent “no fly” and then “don’t buy” list.
A Mixed Year: Asia’s webizens
When their smartphones did work, increasing mobile adoption and Internet penetration in 2016 gave Asia’s webizens the tools to connect and share information and opinions as never before. Unfortunately, for many in Asia, if an increase in freedom of online expression is the metric, the year was mixed at best.
US non-governmental organisation Freedom House rated only two of 15 Asian countries – Japan and the Philippines – as having an Internet that is “free”.  Webizens were “partly free” in Cambodia, South Korea, India, Singapore, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Bangladesh, and “not free” in Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, China and Pakistan.
From outright censorship or arrest in China or blocked access to social media platforms and communication apps such as Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp, to the murder of bloggers in Bangladesh – for Asia’s webizens the power of technology also brought new risks in 2016.
Good year: Asia’s digital disruptors
Amazon’s Jeff Bezos may well be a household name in America, but how about Wei Cheng, co-founder and CEO of Didi Chuxing (formerly Didi Kuai), the multibillion-dollar Chinese ride-sharing app that beat Uber at its own game in China. In September, Uber surrendered its costly battle for riders in China and swapped its operations there for a minority stake in Didi Chuxing.
Cheng is an example of Asia’s Digital Disruptors who came into their own in 2016. Like Jack Ma of Alibaba Group, these new titans are embracing disruptive business models and leveraging local knowledge and connections to win customers and investments.  
Alibaba affiliate Ant Financial, the parent company of the Alipay online payment service, was valued alone at about $60 billion in June when it raised $4.5 billion. Paytm CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma of India is another digital disruptor. His and others’ e-commerce and digital wallet offerings are likely to benefit from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to “demonetise” and India.
With Forrester research projecting the Asia-Pacific e-commerce market to reach US$1.4 trillion in 2020, these and other digital disruptors are likely to see many more good years ahead.
Best Year: Rodrigo Duterte
Not without controversy, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte tops our CNN list for “best year” in Asia by winning his nation’s presidency in a landslide this May and subsequently upending, rethinking and reshaping the state of affairs – for good or for bad – at home and abroad.
Since taking office on June 30, the former mayor of Davao City has launched an unsparing, and bloody, war on crime and drugs that has brought mounting human rights criticism and concerns over extrajudicial killings. The tough-talking leader also has declared a “separation” from the United States, its long-term ally, and moved to put aside territorial disputes in favour of business deals with China – this, despite an international tribunal ruling in the Philippines’ favour in July over territories in the South China Sea. 
In early December, Duterte enjoyed a 77 per cent approval rating as Filipinos continue to put their trust in their controversial president. For now, the Philippine leader’s unconventional moves seem a harbinger of things to come.
This is no pivot to China, but a disruption of the old normal. Duterte ends 2016 seeking to rebalance his nation’s ties, improve the life of the average Filipino and make the Philippines – a one-time economic and trade powerhouse – great again. And for that, Asia’s best year goes to Duterte.
 
Curtis S Chin, a former US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank, is managing director of advisory firm RiverPeak Group, LLC. Jose B Collazo is a Southeast Asia analyst and an associate at RiverPeak Group. Follow them on Twitter at @CurtisSChin and @JoseBCollazo.