Abe tenacious on northern territories

“We recognise the importance of maintaining dialogue with Russia.” This was inserted in a joint communique from the Group of Seven foreign ministers’ meeting held in Hiroshima at the Japanese government’s desire. Ever since Russia annexed Crimea in southern Ukraine in March 2014, the G-7 nations have continued to impose sanctions against Russia. Among these countries, the United States is particularly distrustful of Russia and US President Barack Obama even gave bitter but sincere advice to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who maintains a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The word “dialogue” was incorporated in the joint communique, according to a Japan-Russia diplomatic source, because “if Abe visits Russia before the G-7 Ise-Shima Summit to make progress in negotiations over the northern territories, Japan can claim that his visit will not cause disarray among the G-7 nations.”
The northern territories issue is a weighty task that Abe has been focusing on.
In March last year, visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel made an unexpected proposal to Abe during a dinner meeting. “Shinzo, why not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation [Nato]?” Merkel asked. “I can convince British Prime Minister Cameron and French President Hollande.”
Nato is a military alliance between the United States and European countries. Although what Merkel proposed is extremely unlikely to take place, Abe replied, “Maybe in the future” so as not to be impolite and with a hint of interest. He added, “If we join now, our negotiations with Russia will stop.”
Russia has been nervous about the expansion of Nato since the end of the Cold War. If Abe gives assurances to leaders of member countries over Nato and that is made public, negotiations on the northern territories may become deadlocked. With a spur-of-the-moment decision, Abe successfully avoided deterioration of the Japan-Russia relations.
The Japanese government considers Abe’s scheduled visit to Russia on May 6 to be unofficial. Many are hopeful that progress will be made on the negotiations with frank and direct talks between the two leaders at the resort region of Sochi, where the Winter Olympics were held.
At the two “unofficial meetings” between Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and Russian President Boris Yeltsin, where they talked without neckties, they were able to make major concessions.
In November 1997, Hashimoto and Yeltsin met in Krasnoyarsk and agreed to “do their utmost to conclude a peace treaty by 2000”. In April 1998 in Kawana, Shizuoka Prefecture, Hashimoto proposed that “a border be drawn to the north of the four northern islands with the administration of the four islands being left to Russia for the time being”. Yeltsin reportedly said he understood.
During his visit to Russia, Abe is expected to try to figure out what Putin meant when he likened the northern territories issue to a “draw” in judo. According to a Japan-Russia diplomatic source, “If they are able to have substantive talks, it may lead to Putin visiting Japan by the end of this year.”
On December 28 last year, Abe invited former House of Representatives member Muneo Suzuki, who has personal connections in Russia, to the Prime Minister’s Office. Abe said to Suzuki: “We’ll address the territorial issue between Japan and Russia in 2016. Because the United States will have a presidential election, its grip on Japan will be weakened.”
At the summit, which begins soon after Abe’s visit to Sochi, Abe’s words and actions regarding Russia may draw attention from leaders.