Yingluck’s comeback still on track? 5 reasons her THB 10bn court defeat won’t stop her return

On May 22, the Supreme Administrative Court ordered self-exiled Yingluck to pay over 10.028 billion baht in damages related to the controversial rice subsidy scheme. While this has sparked political ripples for the Shinawatra family, insiders say it does not impact the broader strategy being worked on behind the scenes. Key points include:

1. Legal Avenues Still Open

Yingluck’s legal team has hinted at a new lawsuit to challenge the compensation order, citing that the damage amount has already been revised. Initially set at over 30 billion baht, the current figure is significantly lower. From a legal perspective, this downward revision could work in Yingluck’s favor. If a new case is accepted by the court based on updated facts, the amount could be further reduced — or even dismissed.

2. Timing Was Never Immediate

The court ruling doesn’t disrupt a return plan — because Yingluck never intended to return at this time. Sources close to her say: “She is concerned by the political pressure currently faced by her brother (Thaksin Shinawatra) and wants to avoid similar scrutiny.”

Yingluck faces only one criminal case, and even that may have a legal escape route. By 2027, 10 years will have passed since her conviction. Her legal team plans to petition the court to rule that the case has reached the statute of limitations, as the retroactive application of anti-corruption laws is argued to violate legal norms.

Moreover, the criminal charge against her is for negligence, not direct corruption, making it less severe. This could support future requests for royal pardon.

3. New “Home Detention” Rules May Apply

Thailand is launching a pilot program allowing certain offenders to serve sentences outside of prison due to overcrowding. The regulations are still evolving, but there's talk of expanding eligibility from 4-year to 5-year sentences, which could include Yingluck.

This opens the door for her to return to Thailand, serve her sentence at home, and benefit from court-ordered house arrest instead of incarceration. Legal steps still need time — especially as her legal team prepares a new lawsuit challenging the damage claim.

4. Stable Life Abroad

Yingluck is reportedly living abroad with her son, and their relationship has significantly improved. This stability makes it easier for her to wait for the right timing to return, unlike her brother who returned under intense political and public scrutiny.

5. Active and Unbothered

Now in her early 50s, Yingluck continues to travel, conduct business, and maintain an active life overseas. Although she wishes to reunite with her family in Thailand, sources say she is not under major stress and is prepared to wait for a strategic and less damaging return.

Minority Opinions in the Ruling

Of the 56 Supreme Administrative Court judges, 5 issued dissenting opinions:

4 judges supported the lower court’s ruling, arguing Yingluck should not be held financially liable, as she had already forwarded the State Audit Office’s findings on rice scheme corruption to the Commerce Minister for corrective action. Hence, she fulfilled her duty.

1 judge believed she should be partially responsible — but only for 20% of the damages, after deducting the role of other government agencies and system-wide failures in the rice release mechanism.