The “Cobra Phenomenon” strikes again: The third in six years for the Orange Party

The first instance occurred in 2019, during the decline of the Future Forward Party. The second emerged after the party was dissolved, leading to the formation of the Move Forward Party. The most recent episode is unfolding during the era of the People's Party — formed following the dissolution of the Move Forward Party — with the case of Krit Cheewathammanon, MP for Chonburi, who publicly announced her departure from the party and formally requested to be expelled so that she could join the Kla Tham Party.

What makes this latest case particularly interesting are the reasons Krit cited for her departure:

A toxic internal atmosphere,

Experiences of gender-based discrimination, and

Internal conflicts over policy and parliamentary work.

The breaking point reportedly came when Krit sought to represent the people in a royal audience with His Majesty the King regarding a project to build a water reservoir on Koh Si Chang. She also advocated for the Ministry of Interior to allocate a budget for installing pipelines to transport water to the island. However, her actions were met with internal criticism, as some party members questioned the appropriateness of her approach.

During the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, rumours swirled that some Orange MPs had quietly reached out to powerful figures in the military-backed party, hoping to defect to the ruling coalition. Their efforts were rebuffed, as the government, already commanding over 300 parliamentary seats, saw no need to take on political defectors and risk damaging its public image.

Nonetheless, these events reveal deeper ideological and strategic rifts within the party. The current leadership of the People's Party now faces a dilemma: to expel the so-called "cobra" outright, or to take a more pragmatic — some might say pickled — approach, keeping them in the fold until the end of the parliamentary term without formally cutting ties.

This means that future defectors can likely expect to remain in the party, though stripped of privileges such as committee positions or other roles within the opposition bloc.

Interestingly, even though such “cobras” tend to suffer defeat in subsequent elections — voters often punish them at the ballot box — this hasn’t stopped a recurring “cobra farm” from developing within the Orange movement. The phenomenon has persisted ever since the 2019 general election that followed the military coup.

Why does this keep happening?

Political analysts often point to a key culprit: the 2017 Constitution, which is seen as having systematically weakened the strength and unity of political parties in Thailand.

Under the 1997 Constitution — widely regarded as the most democratic charter drafted with strong public participation — political parties were granted broad, decisive authority. In cases where a party expelled an MP (often a "cobra"), that individual would automatically lose their parliamentary seat. This mechanism served as a powerful deterrent; electoral turncoats feared such consequences and generally refrained from open defiance.

However, the 2017 Constitution significantly weakened this safeguard. It removed the provision that would strip an expelled MP of their seat, instead allowing them a 60-day window to find a new party and retain their status in Parliament. This loophole has directly contributed to the rise of so-called “cobra farms,” where party-hopping politicians are no longer held accountable in any meaningful way.

At the same time, another critical — and more avoidable — factor is the party’s lax approach to candidate selection. This issue spans both local and national politics, from municipal council candidates to constituency MPs. It's a recurring problem that has plagued the Orange Party through all its iterations — Future Forward, Move Forward, and now the People's Party.

The key figure behind the final approval of candidates is the "Friends of Ek" group, particularly Sarayut Jailak, a close associate of both Thanathorn "Ek" Juangroongruangkit and Chaitawat Tulathon. Sarayut has played a central role since the inception of the Orange movement, having served as the director of both Future Forward and Move Forward. He currently holds the post of Secretary-General of the People's Party.

Originally, Sarayut was tasked with overseeing the Progressive Movement’s local election campaigns between 2020 and 2021 — an effort that ultimately ended in defeat. As a result, Thanathorn shifted the responsibility to Move Forward, giving Sarayut a key role in candidate vetting for the 2024–2025 local elections. Although this latest round didn’t meet all expectations, the party did manage to increase its number of local councillors and municipal mayors compared to the Future Forward era.

Nonetheless, the candidate quality issue persists. For instance, two municipal council candidates were recently exposed for having criminal records — one of whom was even arrested during the campaign period. The party had to issue a public apology and revoke their membership, but the damage was already done. It was yet another case of a “too little, too late” response.

And this wasn’t an isolated incident. In previous years, numerous Orange Party candidates — both parliamentary and local — have faced serious allegations. One high-profile example involved an MP-elect from Rayong who had to resign after it was revealed he had a prior theft conviction. While he insisted he hadn’t knowingly violated the eligibility rules, the damage to the party’s public image was undeniable. The cumulative effect of these controversies has steadily eroded the reputation of the Orange Party.

The Orange Party’s approach to candidate selection has gone through two distinct phases. In the first phase — during the formation of the now-dissolved Future Forward Party — several founding members admitted that the selection process was rushed and limited by time constraints. Many who applied were seen as politically opportunistic, seeking personal gain more than shared values. While many were filtered out, some slipped through the cracks. This lapse would later result in a wave of “Orange Cobras” defecting after the party’s dissolution and the transition to the Move Forward Party.

The second era began with Move Forward and continues into the People's Party. During this phase, under the leadership of Secretary-General Chaitawat, the party launched the "Move Forward NEXT" campaign. Chaitawat emphasised the need to reform the party through inclusive feedback from members, volunteers, and grassroots supporters.

Learning from past mistakes, Chaitawat acknowledged that the “cobra problem” largely stemmed from a lack of time to properly vet candidates or work with them before elections. In the new phase, the party implemented trial working periods with candidates ahead of elections, allowing local teams to closely collaborate and evaluate their performance. This shift toward a more participatory and localised process was aimed at building a stable, values-aligned political core, not just recruiting candidates on a one-off basis.

Under the People's Party, a new “Provincial Committee” structure was introduced. Representatives were selected from the district level and collaborated early on in the vetting process. Candidates were required to undergo multiple training sessions organised by the party, designed to instil what the party calls the “true Orange DNA.” This rigorous process appeared to be working, with hardly any signs of internal betrayal — until the recent case of Krit surfaced.

What Comes Next: A Rural Power Play?

Looking ahead, speculation is mounting that the Orange Party may explore alliances with powerful local political families — the so-called “big houses” — especially in rural areas. This strategy, informally dubbed the "Lamphun Model," is being considered in preparation for the next general election. While the party already commands strong support in urban constituencies, it continues to struggle with trust and credibility in rural regions, where political behaviour and values often diverge sharply from urban voters.

Partnering with local dynasties could be a pragmatic move to penetrate deep-red and deep-blue zones. The ultimate goal: achieving a landslide victory that allows for the formation of a single-party government.

Will the Strategy Pay Off?

Whether this recalibrated approach will yield the results the Orange Party hopes for remains to be seen. The path forward will be long and complex, and its success hinges not only on strategy, but on execution, timing, and public trust. All eyes will be on how this bold political gamble unfolds.