Thaksin rallies red-shirt supporters to defeat ‘Mr Magnificent’

Thaksin Shinawatra, the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, visited Phitsanulok on Monday, where he delivered a speech on the “People’s Struggle for Democracy”. 

Beyond engaging with red-shirt supporters from eight provinces in the lower North, Thaksin’s actions appeared aimed at reviving his diminishing influence as the “red prophet”. 

This waning influence may be partly attributed to the formation of the “cross-party coalition governmen” in mid-2023, which caused some red-shirt supporters to shift towards the “orange” or People’s Power Party or adopt more moderate positions. 

Onstage, Thaksin acknowledged that Pheu Thai was no longer a dominant force as it once was, when it could secure an absolute majority. 

“In the last election, we suffered significant losses, perhaps due to overconfidence or a last-minute shift in momentum. But I believe that in the next election, Pheu Thai will be much stronger, with everyone’s support and encouragement,” the former premier said.

Thaksin’s message was not just about reclaimign the red-shirt identity or gauging his popularity – it was also about mobilising red shirt supporters as political operatives for future electoral battles.

A closer look at the eight provinces on his tour – Phitsanulok, Phichit, Uttaradit, Kamphaeng Phet, Tak, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, and Sukhothai – reveal significant insights into Pheu Thai’s electoral standing: 

Sukhothai: A stronghold of Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin with Pheu Thai holding all four seats. 

Uttaradit: Pheu Thai holds all three seats.

Phitsanulok: Pheu Thai won three seats, while the United Thai Nation Party and People’s Party each took one.

Phichit: Historically a stronghold of the Lueangwijit family, which runs under the Pheu Thai banner, the red camp failed to secure any seats. The three constituencies were won by the  Kajornprasart and Patrprasith families under the Bhumjaithai banner.

Kamphaeng Phet: Pheu Thai won zero seats, with the four MP seats split evenly between Kla Tham Party and Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP). It is rumoured that PPRP’s Parinya Ruekrai may have switched allegiance to Kla Tham, though the second PPRP MP Anan Phonamnuay has not moved. 

Tak: Pheu Thai has no MPs, though People’s Party secured two seats and Kla Tham Party one. 

Nakhon Sawan: Pheu Thai Party holds one seat, while the remaining five are divided among the People’s Party (one), United Thai Nation Party (one), Bhumjaithai Party (two) and Chart Pattana Party (one). 

Uthai Thani: Pheu Thai holds no seats as both are held by Bhumjaithai’s “Thai Seth Big House” faction. 

Thaksin has repeatedly noted that the current “cross-party coalition government” reflects the fact that Pheu Thai no longer wields uncontested power as it once did. 

This was evident in Thaksin’s satirical remarks on stage, where he referred to certain coalition parties as “Mr Magnificent”, implying they have become obstacles, hindering effective cooperation. 

This is not the first time that Thaksin has lashed out at coalition partners for their political manoeuvring. In February, he set a target for Pheu Thai in the next election, saying: “At the very least, we should have over 200 MPs … Pheu Thai may no longer govern alone, but having too many seats isn’t ideal either – it’s a headache.”

With his goal of securing over 200 MPs, all eyes are now on how Pheu Thai will strategise beyond its strongholds.

Realistically, achieving over 200 MPs may require expanding into other battlegrounds. The eight provinces in Thaksin’s recent tour could prove crucial. The more seats Pheu Thai gains, the less influence “Mr Magnificent” will have in the equation, potentially reducing the coalition parties’ role as obstacles in the next election.