Will the ‘Orange Camp’ finally claim victory in PAO elections?

With the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) elections in 47 provinces set to be held on February 1, the campaigning is becoming increasingly vibrant and intense. 

Major political parties are ramping up their efforts, with key leaders and strategists actively delivering speeches and rallying support. The Pheu Thai Party has been consistently sending out former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to strengthen its campaign efforts. 

Similarly, the People’s Party has started deploying prominent figures like Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, Pita Limjaroenrat and Chaithawat Tulathon to back PAO candidates. This party is adopting a “starburst” strategy, spreading out to various regions alongside the party’s leader, Natthaphong Rueangpanyawut.

Political analysts, however, reckon that the “Orange Camp” will likely face a third defeat in local elections, following setbacks in 2020 and 2021. 

Since 2023, the Progressive Movement has been focusing its political efforts on the Move Forward Party, which became the People’s Party after its dissolution in 2024. Under the strategic leadership of party secretary-general Sarayuth Jailuk, the People’s Party’s current election approach differs from the Progressive Movement’s past tactics. 

Rather than fielding candidates in nearly every province, the party is now focusing on carefully selected candidates for constituencies where they have a strong chance of success against entrenched local political families. 

Despite all its PAO chairmanship candidates losing in late 2024, the party saw mixed results: improved support in some areas, and minor declines in others. 

For the upcoming PAO elections, the Orange Camp is officially fielding candidates in 17 provinces. While some provinces may see local candidates getting support from Orange MPs, the People’s Party aims to secure at least one PAO chairmanship in each region. 

This optimism stems from lessons learned in the 2024 PAO elections, where many candidates secured second place by narrow margins. The party also believes that its strong performance in the 2023 national election, when Move Forward came in second in all provinces, will help maintain the momentum. 

Of the candidates fielded in 17 provinces, those in at least four provinces – one in each region – can be expected to benefit from the Orange voter base found during the 2023 national poll. These provinces are: 

• Samut Prakan: Move Forward won by a landslide in 2023 and secured all MP seats. 
• Chiang Mai: Move Forward broke into the Shinawatra family stronghold and won one MP seat in an urban district. 
• Trat: Move Forward secured the province’s only MP seat, beating the Pheu Thai candidate by more than half the votes.
• Phuket: This is the only province in the South where Move Forward won all three constituencies in 2023, boosting confidence in turning the region from “Democrat” to “Orange”. 

However, two key factors that could pose risks to the Orange Camp in this election: 

• Natural vote support: Voter turnout may be lower than in parliamentary elections, particularly due to the absence of early voting, which has always been a weakness for the Orange Camp.
• Election Date: The scheduled voting day on a Saturday may prevent workers and salaried employees – the Orange Camp’s main voter base – from casting their votes. 

This election is not just about restoring the dignity of the party that won the 2023 election but lost due to political manoeuvres, but also of finally realising its dream of winning at the local level. Will the outcome align with their aspirations? Stay tuned.