Ex-security chief urges Thailand to brace for global shift under Trump
New US leadership brings major consequences for Thai military and foreign policy, says former National Security Council chief
Thailand must prepare for changes in the global geopolitical landscape under the new security policy of US president-elect Donald Trump, former National Security Council chief Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut said on Thursday.
Paradorn issued the warning after Trump pulled off a stunning political comeback, defeating Democrat candidate Kamala Harris to be elected the 47th president of the United States on Tuesday.
Paradorn noted that Thailand does not feature large on the US’s security and military radar, but he expressed concern that Trump’s non-interventionist mindset would give the green light for large countries to invade their smaller counterparts.
Regarding the war in Ukraine, he said Trump would likely negotiate for peace with Russia and North Korea. However, the new US president is less likely to press for a halt to hostilities between Israel and Hamas, he added.
“Trump is viewed as an individual who defies expectations. He campaigned on certain promises, but I am not confident he will keep those promises,” Paradorn said.
The former security chief cautioned that Thailand must tread carefully in the geopolitical arena, pointing out that several conflicts across the globe are impacting the kingdom, especially fighting on the Thailand-Myanmar border.
He said Thailand must adjust its ties with Trump’s US and China appropriately, as the shift in relations between these superpowers would impact trade, investment, military and society.
“The Thai government should closely monitor the situation and anticipate Trump’s policies,” he said, highlighting the incoming president’s stance regarding foreign, security and military affairs.
Paradorn said it was safe to assume that Trump would reduce US military assistance to Thailand but leave the Cobra Gold joint military exercise in place. This would mean Thailand would have to be more self-reliant in military affairs, he added.
He said Trump’s election win could convince the Royal Thai Air Force to purchase the US F-16 Fighting Falcon instead of Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen. Thailand would have to buy the F-16s to prevent loss of US assistance, he said.
Paradorn also warned that Thailand must be more cautious regarding its overlapping claims area with Cambodia, saying that the US views oil resources in the Gulf of Thailand as part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy.
“A change in US leadership is akin to changing the world’s leader, so every country must keep an eye on, anticipate, and adjust their role accordingly,” he said.
