Pheu Thai-led coalition likely to re-emerge stronger than ever

Most ministers from the Srettha government will likely retain their previous portfolios in the new cabinet under the leadership of the Pheu Thai Party, the latest reports indicate. However, some reshuffling is expected, with Phumtham Wechayachai, Deputy PM and Commerce Minister, probably moving to Defence and Prasert Chantrarawongtong, Minister of Digital Economy and Society, taking his place. Sorawong Thienthong, the party’s secretary-general, is likely to replace Prasert.

As reported earlier, Pichai Chunhavajira will stay as Finance Minister but will no longer serve as Deputy PM, with Julapan Amornvivat and Paophum Rojanasakul remaining as deputy finance ministers.

Sermsak Pongpanich will stay on as Tourism and Sports Minister, Somsak Thepsutin will retain Public Health, Sudawan Wangsuphakijkosol will look after Culture, and Jiraporn Sindhuprai will remain Minister in the PM's Office.

Four ministers are likely to be removed: Sutin Klungsang formerly in charge of Defence, Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa, Kriang Kalptinan, Deputy Interior Minister and Chakkraphong Saengmanee of the PM’s office.

Party-list MP Chusak Sirinil is expected to oversee legal affairs as either Deputy PM or Minister in the PM's Office; and Theerarat Samretwanit, a Bangkok MP, is anticipated to become Minister in the PM’s Office.

Bhumjaithai hopes to retain its previous positions, namely Anutin Charnvirakul as Deputy PM and Interior Minister, Pol. Gen. Permpoon Chidchob as Education Minister, Songsak Thongsri as Deputy Interior Minister, Pipat Ratchakitprakarn in charge of Labour, Surasak Phanchareonworakul as Deputy Education Minister, and Supamas Issaraphakdi as Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation.

Napintorn Srisanpang will continue as Deputy Minister of Commerce, and Chada Thaiseth as Deputy Minister of the Interior, although Chada's eligibility is still under review.

The Palang Pracharath Party, after internal disputes, has decided to resubmit its previous ministers, including Pol. Gen. Patcharawat Wongsuwan as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, Thammanat Prompao as Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn as Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, and Santi Promphat as Deputy Public Health Minister. Thammanat's eligibility is also under review.

The United Thai Nation Party has made slight adjustments but is still nominating Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the party leader, to serve as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy. Ekanat Promphan, the party secretary-general, will assume the role of Industry Minister, while Pimpattra Wichaikul will be reassigned from Minister of Industry to Deputy Minister of Finance. Suchart Chomklin will remain as Deputy Minister of Commerce.

From the Chart Thai Pattana Party, Varawut Silpa-archa will continue as Minister of Social Development and Human Security. The Prachachat Party will have Tawee Sodsong as Minister of Justice.

There is also a rumour that the Democrat Party might join the government due to internal issues within the Palang Pracharath Party, with a possibility of the Democrats receiving one Minister and one Deputy Minister position.

Should this occur, Chalermchai Sri-on, the party leader, is likely to be appointed as Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, and the Democrats may also receive an Interior or Public Health deputy minister position, with Dech-it Khaothong, the party secretary-general, and Chaichana Dejdecho, a Nakhon Si Thammarat MP, as candidates.

However, there is some concern regarding Chalermchai's involvement in an illegal pork import case, which may lead to stricter eligibility checks. If he fails to qualify, Chaichana may take his place.

With the current coalition government and allied parties that supported Prime Minister Paetongtarn's vote, the Pheu Thai Government, Phase 2, is relatively strong.

The coalition government consists of 9 parties, with a total of 312 MPs,

There are also 11 votes from “allied parties” that supported Paetongtarn's prime ministerial bid, including Thai Sang Thai (6), the New Party (1), Thai Teachers for the People Party (1), New Democracy (1), Thai Local  (1), and New Social Power (1).

The Democrat Party is also leaning toward joining the government, adding 25 votes (21 with a clear stance to join the government and 4 with a stance as the opposition).

This brings the total number of “government bloc” MPs to 348, making it a stable and strong government, aligning with former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's interview on August 20, where he mentioned the likelihood of the Democrats joining the government to ensure stability, especially given the need for significant structural changes, particularly in the economy, which requires parliamentary support and legislative amendments.

The opposition, which has lost some of its previous supporters to the government, is now reduced to just 145 MPs, including 143 from the People's Party, 1 from Thai Progressive, and 1 from Fair, making it a weakened and less effective force for holding the government accountable, particularly in parliamentary mechanisms like no-confidence debates and the passage of key legislation.

It's undeniable that the number of MPs in the House plays a significant role in political manoeuvring.

Although Pheu Thai did not have the highest number of votes in the election, the current situation where various political parties are eager to join the government works in Pheu Thai's favour, particularly with small parties that have little leverage.

The stability of the Pheu Thai Government, Phase 2, is thus unchallenged, except for the possibility of stumbling over its own feet.