Path to becoming prime minister not paved with roses

Associate Professor Jade Donavanik, former adviser to the Constitutional Drafting Committee, accurately predicted the outcome of the petition by 40 senators regarding the appointment of Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister. He said Srettha Thavisin's excuse of not knowing the law was untenable and predicted that Srettha would be removed from his position as prime minister.

Now, he forecasts the obstacles that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will face:

First Barrier: The Constitutional Court's ruling in Srettha’s case has raised the standards for evaluating political appointments, making the formation of a Cabinet challenging.

Second Barrier: There is a potential issue regarding the establishment of the government at Ban Chan Song La, Shinawatra’s residence, known as the "Ban Chan Song La Declaration" on August 14.

If during discussions at Ban Chan Song La, Paetongtarn was not present, it implies that Thaksin invited the participants to decide on the new prime minister. The question is whether this situation violates Article 29 of the Political Parties Act, which concerns domination and control over political parties, punishable by imprisonment for individuals involved and possible dissolution of the party under Articles 28 and 92.

Individuals involved could face imprisonment, while the political party could be in violation of Article 28 for allowing non-members to exert influence, potentially resulting in the dissolution of the party under Section 92 and a 10-year ban on its executive committee.

All parties involved in the discussions are at risk of dissolution because the government is being formed by someone who is not the party leader, and by someone who is still serving a prison sentence.

The proposed amendment to Article 112, the lese-majeste law – whether it follows the same approach previously suggested by the Move Forward Party and deemed unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court – needs clarification.

The digital wallet project – whether it is for all government parties, specifically for Pheu Thai, or just for Srettha – needs to be clarified. If it is for "former prime minister Srettha”, adjustments should be made, and the project should be discontinued with his departure.

If some ministers from the previous Cabinet are included in the new Cabinet, it should be examined whether any of them have violated ethical standards or had severe issues abroad, such as criminal cases or dismissal from service.

Jade also offers the following recommendations:

For forming the new Cabinet, the selection of ministers should be based on ethical standards.

Regarding the Ban Chan Song La Declaration, it is uncertain what recommendations can be given, as it seems to have already resulted in a violation.

For the amendment of Article 112, clear proposals are needed, focusing on enforcement and legal proceedings. Consider forming a committee to review cases, rather than leaving it to local police.

For the digital wallet project, it is essential to categorise the amounts based on necessity:

Essential: 5,000 baht
Highly Necessary: 3,000 baht
General Necessity: 2,000 baht

Combining amounts for three people to total 10,000 baht is preferred over giving 10,000 baht to one person. The total number of recipients would be less than 40-50 million, and other policies should be considered instead of just cash handouts.