All in the family: Paetongtarn likely to become Prime Minister

The second phase of the Pheu Thai government is rapidly taking shape, thanks to well-prepared behind-the-scenes strategies that led to Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra being nominated yesterday by her party as Thailand’s 31st Prime Minister.

The sequence of events began on August 14, following a Constitutional Court ruling that removed Srettha Thavisin from office. The court's decision, passed by a 5-4 vote, was due to Srettha's appointment of Phichit Chuenban as a minister, deemed an act of dishonesty and a serious breach of ethics.

Thaksin Shinawatra, the influential figure behind Pheu Thai, might have sensed trouble brewing even before the court's ruling. On August 13, he visited Shinawatra Tower 3 to chair a meeting of Pheu Thai MPs in place of his daughter, Paetongtarn. During this meeting, Thaksin reportedly said, “I will visit the people to thank them and help the party leader who looks like me.”

On the evening of August 14, an apparently secret plan was set in motion at Thaksin’s residence. Initial reports indicated that the coalition partners had agreed to nominate Chaikasem Nitisiri as the new Prime Minister.

However, the following day saw a shift in the Pheu Thai MPs’ stance, with Paetongtarn’s name emerging as the preferred candidate instead of Chaikasem.

Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, confirmed that Chaikasem was discussed as a potential PM. However, the coalition partners later announced their support for a Pheu Thai PM candidate who would honour the condition that there would be no proposals to amend Article 112 of the Criminal Code (lèse-majesté law), which Chaikasem had previously supported. This objection was notably absent from discussions held at Thaksin’s residence.

Complicating matters further, there were concerns about Chaikasem, a former Attorney General, potentially being implicated in the case of a 2 million baht bribe related to Phichit Chuenban.

These developments suggest that Paetongtarn might have been the intended Prime Minister all along. Although there were rumours about her readiness, this aligns with the Khao Yai Declaration at the end of July.

Anutin, who was considered a potential new PM, had stated that Bhumjaithai would support Pheu Thai if a political accident occurred. He also indicated readiness to support Paetongtarn if she was prepared, or to become Prime Minister himself if necessary.

This situation implies that Chaikasem’s name might have been a red herring to avoid raising suspicions with Srettha about a conspiracy to make way for the youngest Shinawatra to become PM.

Paetongtarn’s Instagram post with former Prime Minister Srettha on August 15, just before the PM vote, aimed to demonstrate her lack of involvement in any schemes.

Amid this political drama, Thaksin’s release on August 31 will be a crucial moment in determining who the real Prime Minister is.