Reshuffling the coalition: Democrats could replace Prawit’s faction

Analysts are predicting that the current political turmoil will intensify this month, noting that no matter how the Constitutional Court rules on the dissolution of the Move Forward Party and the qualifications of PM Srettha Thavisin, changes are inevitable, especially in terms of the numbers of government and opposition MPs.

The government coalition currently has 314 MPs made up of 141 from the Pheu Thai Party, 70 from Bhumjaithai Party, 40 from Palang Pracharath, 36 from United Thai Nation, 10 from the Chart Thai Pattana and 9 from the Prachachart Party. The Chart Pattana Party has 3, Thai Ruam Palang Party 2  and the Thai Local Power Party, New Social Power Party, and Seri Ruam Thai Party 1 MP each.

The opposition has 185 MPs, consisting of 148 from the Move Forward Party, 25 from the Democrat Party, 6 from Thai Sang Thai Party, 2 from the Fair Party, while the Thai Teachers for People Party, the Progressive Thailand Party, the New Democracy Party and the New Party have 1 MP apiece.

Currently, there are 499 MPs out of 500, as the Election Commission (EC) has requested the Supreme Court to revoke the election rights of Mukdawan Leungsrinil, the Bhumjaithai Party MP from Nakhon Si Thammarat’s 8th district, for allegedly violating the regulation on the choice of MPs.

It is rumoured that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the spiritual leader of Pheu Thai, is unhappy with the political manoeuvres of Palang Pracharath Party leader General Prawit Wongsuwan, and his alleged role in the submission to the Constitutional Court by a group of 40 Senators of a petition to review Srettha’s qualifications.

Additionally, Prawit’s acceptance of Wan Yubamrung, a former Pheu Thai MP and son of Colonel Chalerm Yubamrung, into Palang Pracharath has further displeased Thaksin due to Wan’s conflict with Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

Prawit’s ultimate goal of becoming PM has led him to instruct his close allies to negotiate with orange-shirts MPs in case Move Forward is dissolved and to offer ministerial positions to lure red-shirted MPs, which has further intensified the conflict.

However, Prawit’s control over Palang Pracharath is not as strong as before. The party’s internal power struggle, with Thammanat Prompao, the party’s secretary general and Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, openly challenging Prawit’s authority.

A check of the 40 Palang Pracharath MPs reveals that Prawit’s faction has 13 MPs (including Prawit), Santi Prompat’s faction 6, and Thammanat’s faction 27.

Thaksin’s goal is to remove Prawit and his faction from the government coalition, which would change the political equation. If Prawit’s 13 MPs are removed, the government coalition would have 301 MPs left.

However, Thammanat’s 27 MPs would still be in Palang Pracharath. Prawit might not expel them, forcing Thammanat’s team to stay in the party to retain their MP status.

Meanwhile, there are reports that Thaksin is trying to stabilize the government by negotiating with the Democrat Party to join the coalition. The 21 MPs aligned with Chalermchai Sri-on and Dech-it Khaothong could join the government, negotiating for one ministerial and two deputy ministerial positions, although they might only get one of each.

If the Democrat’s 21 MPs join, the government coalition will have 322 MPs, They will adopt the title National Unity Government for communications and potentially reshuffle the Cabinet by October and possibly as early as this month or next.

The opposition would have 164 MPs after deducting the Democrats’ 21.

If Move Forward is dissolved, some of its MPs might defect to the government, changing the political balance.

No matter what happens after August 14, when the Court will decide on Srettha’s fate, Thaksin’s aim to remove Prawit and his faction from the coalition is likely to significantly alter the political landscape.

For now, those future political developments hinge on the moves of Thaksin and Prawit’s team, with both sides strategising to maintain their political power.