Which political faction will secure control of the Senate?

When the district-level results for the selection of 200 Senate members were announced on June 9, it came as little surprise to see that the list of those who made it through the first round featured many notable figures in politics, including representatives from powerful families and individuals closely affiliated with various political factions. This despite the Senate system and Senate elections being designed to be independent of political parties.

The selection of new senators is being closely monitored. The key question is which political side will ultimately secure control of the upper house. Analysts predict that the selection process will likely result in three main groups. The first group, potentially making up 60-70% of the upper house, consists of representatives from powerful families or those with close ties to politicians. The second group comprises business magnates, while the third includes activists, who may constitute only 30-40% of the remaining seats.

This aligns with signals from various political factions, especially those from powerful families. Each faction is strategically positioning its network by sending candidates to vote, paving the way for future influence in the upper house.

One of the most talked-about names at this time is Somchai Wongsawat, former prime minister and brother-in-law of Thaksin Shinawatra. Somchai, who cleared the district-level round, highlights the proactive moves by the Shinawatra family. While the Pheu Thai Party is in government, these moves underline their strategic political positioning. Establishing a stronghold in Chiang Mai could potentially set the stage for a shot at the position of vice president of the parliament, influencing both minor and major political arenas in the future.

The Pheu Thai Party has learned important lessons regarding the upper house. Reflecting on the end of Yingluck Shinawatra's government in late 2013, Pheu Thai, as the leading party, proposed a constitutional amendment regarding Senate candidates' qualifications.

Initially, Pheu Thai maintained the qualifications, including prohibiting parents, spouses, and children of MPs or political office holders from running for the Senate. Additionally, members of political parties or MPs were forbidden from running for the Senate unless they had resigned from their political party or MP position for at least five years.

However, due to Pheu Thai's majority control of the House at the time, these qualifications were eventually removed during the committee stage after the first round of approval. The minority's objections were overruled by the majority, leading to intense debates in the second round, particularly from the opposition and conservatives, who criticised this move as opening the door to a "husband-and-wife Senate".

Aware of the precarious political climate, Pheu Thai eventually reinstated the qualifications as initially proposed in the first round.

Eleven years later, the issue of the Senate is back, with the Pheu Thai Party once again in government. The upper house “game” is being fiercely contested by various political factions, with each side launching strategic moves, showing no signs of compromise.

With the district-level round now complete, attention shifts to the upcoming provincial-level round. It remains to be seen whether there will be any surprises along the way, particularly with the Constitutional Court currently reviewing whether four Articles of the Organic Act on the Selection of Senators conflict with Article 107 of the Constitution.

If the ruling is favourable, the selection process will proceed to the provincial level on June 16 and then to the national level on June 26, culminating in the certification of the new 200-member Senate on July 2, coinciding with the opening of the parliamentary session.

Conversely, if the court's ruling is unfavourable, the selection process will likely face interruptions.

By Darakorn