New Senate unlikely to be well disposed towards a liberal agenda
The Election Commission (EC) is yet to officially certify the 200 elected members and the 100 reserve members, but it is expected to happen soon.
A review of the political backgrounds of the new senators shows that they come from different political streams and diverse ideological perspectives.
Painted with a broad brush, the senators might seem to belong to the “blue faction” – the Bhumjaithai Party – aligned with provincial and influential political families, making up about 70% of the Senate. The “orange-independent faction”, leaning towards the liberal Move Forward Party, comprises around 15%, and another group, possibly a “mixed-colour-centrist faction”, makes up about 15%.
Given this make-up of the Senate, it could be said that any agenda aiming for major national changes, as promoted by those with liberal democratic ideals, would face significant challenges or may find it nearly impossible to achieve their goals without approval from the influential members of the House of Representatives.
With the progressive “country-changing network” only securing 15% of Senate seats, or around 30 senators, it appears unlikely they will be able to effectively push their agenda through the Senate.
Angkhana Neelaphaijit, an elected senator from the civil society and independent faction, acknowledges the challenges in advancing initiatives in the Senate, including referendums, constitutional amendments, and other legislative agendas. However, she believes that the elected senators will uphold their independence and integrity and will not be influenced by external pressures.
She said the “independent senators” must employ strategic approaches in the Senate, similar to how the Move Forward Party operates as an opposition in the House of Representatives, focusing on proactive efforts.
Angkhana said that working in the Senate would require dialogue, hoping for future collaborative efforts, although attempts at such dialogue during national elections were often met with resistance.
“On election day, efforts were made to talk to top scorers to garner support, and some were even approached regarding a referendum on constitutional amendments, but nobody was willing to engage,” Angkhana noted.
Looking at the Senate's role in influencing political scenarios, three key areas are highlighted:
Constitutional amendments: This involves the drafting of a new constitution. To pass a constitutional amendment, a majority approval is required from Parliament, including backing from at least one-third of the senators, or 67 out of 200.
Legislation for national change: This encompasses the passage of laws related to national reforms. Even if the House of Representatives passes a bill, it must go through the Senate for scrutiny, where senators have the right to oppose or amend it.
Approval of appointments to independent bodies: In 2024, the names of up to 12 individuals will be presented for approval to the Senate. According to past practice, the Senate will form a committee to vet these nominees before seeking a majority vote for their approval.
Given the current Senate composition, where the majority of senators are from the “Blue faction”, the 30 independent senators are unlikely to drive significant changes, especially if the majority does not support them.
Therefore, the struggle of representatives advocating for “people’s senators” to change the country may be hindered from the start under existing rules, potentially reducing the independent senators to a symbolic role.
However, the progressive network aiming for national transformation is unlikely to surrender or limit its efforts to the parliamentary framework. They are expected to continue pushing for these issues to become “people’s agenda”, thereby laying the groundwork for future battles against the dominant factions in the Senate.
