Thailand’s economy is expected to remain relatively stagnant from 2024 through at least the first half of 2025, according to Tanit Sorat, chairman of the Advisory Council for National Workforce Development and vice president of the Employers’ Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry.
Sharing his insights on economic trends and employment prospects for 2025, he noted that this economic stagnation would likely impact the overall unemployment rate, with an increase in joblessness likely in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.
Addressing the labour market and employment, Tanit emphasised that economic expansion or contraction significantly influences employment trends. Strong economic growth leads to increased consumption, which in turn drives business expansion, investment and employment stability.
Key factors influencing employment include export performance and other economic activities such as tourism, the wholesale and retail trades, construction, and the service sector. These sectors collectively promote job creation, which subsequently boosts consumption and spending among workers, who are both producers and consumers.
As for unemployment, data from Thailand’s labour market in October 2024 revealed that 39.63 million people were employed, while approximately 387,000–390,000 individuals were unemployed, equating to an unemployment rate of 0.97–1%. Among the unemployed, 41.3% were university graduates or higher.
Additionally, half of the unemployed had never worked before. The reported unemployment rate may not fully reflect the situation, he stressed, as it excludes approximately 184,000 people working part-time, averaging four hours per day, which accounts for 0.46% of the employed population.
Also in October 2024, the unemployment rate among workers under Social Security Section 33 stood at 216,213 individuals, accounting for 1.8%. This was a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2023, when the unemployment rate was 1.93%. Among these, there were 75,885 newly unemployed individuals, marking the highest figure in six months.
However, the overall unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 through the first quarter of 2025 could rise due to the stagnant economy. New hiring has slowed as many businesses face liquidity issues, forcing them to enter debt restructuring programmes.
A survey conducted by the Advisory Council in late November revealed that of 591 businesses surveyed, slightly over half (52.8%) indicated stable employment levels. However, 24.2% of respondents reported potential workforce reductions, which aligns with an increasing number of business closures.