India predicted to surpass US, China in oil consumption
The energy conglomerate’s research arm points to India’s ever-growing working population as driving its demand for energy
National oil and gas conglomerate PTT Plc has forecast that India will soon surpass the United States, China and the European Union to become the world’s biggest oil consumer.
The forecast was made by PRISM, PTT’s research arm, and presented at the event “2024 Annual Petroleum Outlook Forum: Regenerative Thailand with Cleanergy”, held in Bangkok on Thursday.
PRISM estimated that global oil usage this year will expand from the previous year by around 1 million barrels per day, with 58% of global oil used by the transport sector, followed by the industrial sector at 28%.
PRISM said the current rankings in oil consumption, with the US on top, followed by China and EU, may soon change under the 2nd term administration of US president-elect Donald Trump.
Trump’s policy will address trade deficits by increasing tariffs on imported goods, said PRISM, adding that the country most affected by this is China, whose economy is already vulnerable.
PRISM said China is facing internal challenges, such as the real estate crisis and household debts. Meanwhile, global oil prices remain volatile, especially due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
"The future of oil consumption in China may not be as prosperous as it has been in the past, but India is expected to take its place,” the research centre said. “By 2030, it is projected that 75% of global oil consumption will come from India due to its large population and a higher proportion of working-age people compared to other countries that are seeing their populations age.”
PRISM added that India serves as a bridge between Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a well-developed fibre optic infrastructure and a government that encourages 100% foreign investment, creating conditions that would increase oil consumption exponentially.
PRISM however predicted that the ratio of global clean energy consumption versus fossil fuel counterparts would change in the future. By 2040, renewable energy is expected to be responsible for 53% of global energy usage, versus the current ratio of only 27%.
