Seminar examines how Thailand can navigate geopolitical tensions

Danucha Pitchayanan, NESDC secretary-general, stated that the goal of the seminar was to make Thais aware of the rapidly fluctuating changes resulting from global geopolitics and to explore alternative ways to prepare for or manage various impacts, including identifying opportunities that can benefit the country's development in a timely manner.

Emphasising that Thailand is only one small nation, Supavud Saicheua, veteran economist and NESDC chairman, noted that despite increased pressure and active trade protection policies between the US and China, there is no concrete pressure on small countries to take sides.

As a result, Thailand should seize this opportunity to position itself as a flexible-centric nation capable of supporting or criticising any side that threatens the country's interests.

Thailand should also strengthen its agricultural industry so that the kingdom can become a connector country, engaging in mutual trade with superpowers like China.

“With only 9% of farmland, China will continue to import food from abroad, and Thailand has a chance to serve that market. Thailand is now China's fourth-largest agricultural importer,” he said, emphasising that the kingdom should be in the best position to reap the most benefits.

Benjarong Suwankiri, senior executive vice president of Thailand's Export-Import Bank, agreed, noting that this geopolitical tension will remain with global trade and politics for the long term, causing industries to face higher costs of doing business, particularly from technology tariffs and logistics.

He advised Thailand to consider the third alternative solution, which is to firmly join forces with its Southeast Asian neighbours to increase its bargaining power with superpower nations while creating a conflict-free zone.

He believes that by doing so, Thailand and the region will be able to strategically join the global technology supply chain.

In addition, he urged the country to expedite its Free-Trade Agreement process and amend its laws and regulations to increase ease of doing business while improving infrastructure, particularly in CLMV logistics and renewable energy.

“There are plenty of possibilities for Thailand, but they come at a cost. As a result, Thailand must position itself wisely, adapting its policies and management while also reinforcing its strengths,” he stated.

Asst Prof Dulyapak Preecharus of Southeast Asian Studies at Thammasat University and president of the Regional Studies Association advocated for strong ASEAN cooperation to promote regional stability and outlined some guidelines for Thailand's appropriate response to unrest in neighbouring countries, particularly given the large number of migrants arriving in Thailand.

He agreed that Thailand and the ASEAN region should position themselves as flexible neutrality that complies with international laws and regulations while protecting the region’s interests.

“Thailand and ASEAN will undoubtedly face geopolitical pressures. Thailand needs to have proactive foreign policies in dealing with geopolitics. The kingdom must reconsider its position in ASEAN, as the country does not need to be the primary leader on some issues,” he stated.

NESDC member Witsanu Attavanich expressed his concerns about food and energy security, claiming that geopolitical tensions combined with climate change are making the issues more difficult to address.

“Having food and energy security not only means sufficiency but also refers to inclusive access with stability and utilisation for maximum benefits," he noted.

As a result, he stated that Thailand’s agricultural capacity must be rapidly improved in both quality and quantity to increase productivity and competitiveness while minimising negative environmental impact, particularly carbon emissions. He also advised the country to improve farmer skills and develop renewable energy infrastructure so that Thailand can become more reliant on its own energy.

Changes in the current world geopolitics

Underscoring the profound impact of global geopolitical changes on Thailand, the NESDC secretary-general highlighted the intricate interplay of geopolitical factors, including location, territory, population, ethnicity, culture, economy, and resources, in shaping international power dynamics.

He then outlined the escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide, citing the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict as prime examples. These events have significantly elevated global geopolitical risk indices, raising concerns about the potential for wider-scale conflicts.

Key areas of global geopolitical change impacting Thailand include:

• Trade wars: The escalating trade war between the US and China has had far-reaching consequences, including supply chain disruptions, tariff barriers, and technology restrictions. Thailand, as a significant player in global trade, has been affected by these developments.
• Technology wars: The competition for technological supremacy, particularly in semiconductors, has intensified between the US and China. This has led to measures such as export controls and supply chain decoupling, impacting various industries and countries.
• Supply chain disruptions: The pandemic and geopolitical tensions have disrupted global supply chains, prompting countries to reassess their reliance on foreign sources for critical goods and components. This has led to a trend towards reshoring and near-shoring production.
• Labour competition: The shift in global production patterns has created a demand for skilled workers, leading to a “talent war”. Thailand faces challenges in attracting and retaining highly skilled talent in the face of global competition.
• Immigrant crisis: The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has resulted in a significant influx of refugees into Thailand, placing a strain on the country's resources and social services.
• Food security: Geopolitical instability and climate change have disrupted food production and distribution systems, leading to rising food prices and concerns about food security.
• Energy security: The reliance on fossil fuels and the geopolitical risks associated with energy supply chains pose challenges for Thailand's energy security.

Danucha emphasised the need for Thailand to adopt a proactive approach to managing the implications of global geopolitical shifts. This includes diversifying trade partners, investing in technology, developing human capital, and ensuring food and energy security. By carefully navigating these complex challenges, Thailand can position itself to thrive in the evolving global landscape.