Thailand’s ‘big house’ political system faces test in PAO polls

The Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) election across 47 provinces scheduled for Saturday will serve as a crucial test to determine if the “big house” clan-based political system remains robust. 

The results will also reveal how many clans will prevail or if the new political movement will continue to face defeat. 

An assessment of the PAO election across all regions indicates that the “big house” aligned with the Pheu Thai Party has a strong chance of winning in 13 provinces. This is based on the party’s official candidacies in 14 provinces, in addition to candidates running under the names of party members in two more provinces.

This prediction slightly undercuts “big boss” Thaksin Shinawatra’s forecast as campaign adviser for Pheu Thai Party candidates. Initially, Thaksin predicted a win in all 16 provinces, but later declared that the party would win in all provinces. 

Meanwhile, big houses affiliated to the Bhumjaithai Party are expected to win in seven provinces. Though the party has not officially fielded candidates, it is well understood that these provinces fall under the Bhumjaithai network. While this number may appear modest, it is key to note that in the previous election across 29 provinces, the Bhumjaithai-affiliated “blue camp” secured the most wins, approximately 10 provinces. 

Additionally, there are 27 other provinces where local "big house" politicians, who are not aligned with either red or blue camps, have a 100% chance of winning. 

This “colourless big house” can secure victories without relying on large political parties. While these groups are generally allies, they do not need to affiliate with any political party to run successfully. This faction is poised to control 27 provinces and is likely to sweep all positions for PAO presidents with a near-certain success rate. This is due to several factors: 

• The patronage system remains strong 
• Their resources outweigh public sentiment
• Their established canvassing networks are more robust than grassroots efforts. 

When combining the 27 provinces controlled by the independent “big house” with 13 provinces under Pheu Thai’s “red camp” and the seven provinces under the Bhumjaithai-linked “blue camp”, it is clear that the “big house” system will continue to dominate in all 47 provinces for the next four years. 

This leaves no room for the People’s Party’s “orange camp” provincial council presidents to maintain power for another term.