Only short-term gains seen from year-end shopping stimulus
The government's proposed "Shop Dee Mee Kuen" (Shop and Payback) scheme will boost the national economy only in the short term, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre.
The new stimulus plan will be considered by the Cabinet on October 12, and the scheme is proposed to be operated from October 23 to December 31.
Under the scheme, people who shop for specified products, such as those with VAT (excluding alcoholic beverages, tobacco, accommodation, or flight tickets), OTOP, or books, will receive a tax discount in line with the scheme’s rules.
Kasikorn Research Centre estimated that the expected 1.85 million buyers would help generate around Bt55.5 billion in the economic system. If the participants reach 4 million, the money rolling in the system will more than double to Bt120 billion.
It also said that the scheme would promote the sales of several products whose demands have fallen due to the present economic situation. Retail business is expected to be the biggest beneficiary from this scheme.
The research centre also predicted that total credit card payment in 2020 would decrease by 11 per cent, if the scheme is implemented. Without this scheme, total payment will decrease by 12 per cent.
However, the centre forecast that the scheme will help stimulate the Thai economy only in the short term. Besides, most of the beneficiaries will be huge entrepreneurs, not SME organisers.
The centre said that some production lines would not return to full prodiction, since the stimulated demand rises only in the two months when the scheme is in operation. Besides, employment to support the production line would not have recovered much.
