China carefully calibrates its position on Ukraine with an eye on the US

BEIJING - In the current crisis in Ukraine, prominent Chinese scholar and government adviser Zheng Yongnian see what he calls a "total collapse" of the current US-led world order and an opportunity for China to play a bigger role in its remaking.

It has been almost a week since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and many countries, including Singapore, have imposed sanctions on Moscow, but Beijing has come under the spotlight for what is seen as its ambiguous stance on Russian aggression.

But Chinese scholars say Beijing has been carefully calibrating its position on the unfolding crisis according to its interests: It is trying to balance its strategic partnership with Russia - which it sees as critical in its confrontation with the West - with its relations with the US and Europe.

In an essay published on Saturday (Feb 26), Professor Zheng provided a glimpse into China's thinking and where its interests lie in the unfolding crisis.

On the one hand, the war in Ukraine would delay the shift of "US strategic energy from Europe to the Indo-Pacific" to counter China, wrote Prof Zheng, who is director of the Advanced Institute of Global and Contemporary China Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in Shenzhen.

"This means that as long as we do not make subversive strategic mistakes, not only will China's modernisation process not be interrupted, but China will also have the ability and will to play a more important role in the building of a new international order," he said.

The emergence of this war also showed that the current US-led world order cannot be maintained and that the geopolitical balance was tilting towards China, he added.

"The reason why great powers are great powers or are regarded as a great power lies not in its ability to challenge the old order, much less in its ability to wage war, but in its responsibility and ability to promote and maintain international peace," he said.

During a phone call with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged Beijing to step in and mediate a ceasefire with Russia.

Mr. Wang's response was not apparent from the Chinese statement on the call and the Chinese experts mostly dismissed the possibility of Beijing playing the role of mediator.

Instead, the Chinese statement showed that Beijing was "pulling away slightly" from Russia, said international relations expert Shi Yinhong of Renmin University in Beijing.

"Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many countries around the world have condemned Russia, China has also noticed this," said Professor Shi.

But, at the end of the day, Beijing has the bigger picture in mind - its biggest threat is still The US.

"In the face of all-round confrontation by Western allies led by the US, the strategic partnership between Russia and China is extremely important, this is the reason for China's support to Russia," said Prof Shi.

In his view, Beijing would continue to provide financial and economic help to Russia "as long as it is within its means and interests".

Both China and Russia declared a "no limits" strategic partnership last month after Chines President Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

Both sides said they would work together - and against the US - to build a new international order based on their interpretations of human rights and democracy.

Dr. Mikko Huotari, executive director of the German think-tank Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin said Beijing and Moscow had a common cause in opposing the US, Nato, and the expansion of Western-centric alliances and security partnerships such as the recent Aukus the pact, which comprises Australia, the UK, and the US.

"I think Xi and Putin see this as a historical struggle for an international order that is much more aligned with their principles and interests," said Dr. Huotari.

In the current crisis, China has repeatedly acknowledged what it describes as Russia's "legitimate security concerns" while calling for restraint and a resolution through negotiations.

It has also been said that the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and protected".

One cornerstone of Beijing's foreign policy is respect for "national sovereignty" and, in Prof Shi's view, China had already signaled through its statements, albeit indirectly, that this also includes Ukraine's sovereignty.

The calls for restraint, while not singling out Russia, also includes Moscow.

The lack of outright condemnation of the Russian invasion has led Western analysts to criticise Beijing's stand as contradictory but, to experts like Prof Shi, China's position was one with "internal complexities".

Beijing's reputation will no doubt take a hit because of China's stance, and the reported remarks between Mr. Wang and his Ukrainian counterpart were probably a calculated move to take some of the heat off.

In the end, Beijing appears willing to take the hit.

Said S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Associate Professor Hoo Tiang Boon: "Those reputational costs will be marginal from a relative point of view.

"China's reputation in the US and the West had already been severely damaged in recent years, even without the Ukraine crisis."

Danson Cheong
China Correspondent, The Straits Times