DDC predicts three Covid-19 scenarios after reopening Thailand
The Department of Disease Control (DDC) has predicted three scenarios of Covid-19 situation in Thailand after the country will reopen 17 tourist provinces to vaccinated foreign visitors from November 1 onward.
Under the plan, visitors travelling by air from 46 countries have that a low level of Covid-19 infections will not have to quarantine, but they must prove they have received both jabs of an approved Covid-19 vaccine for at least 14 days as well as produce a negative RT-PCR test result taken no more than 72 hours before flying.
“The first and best scenario is called the ‘green scenario’, when the chance of virus spreading from an infected patient to another person was lowered by 25 per cent comparing to the pre-lockdown period,” said Dr Chawetsan Namwat, director of the DDC's emergency disease and health hazards control division.
“In this scenario, number of daily infections will gradually decrease to around 5,000 people per day. To reach this result, the strict Covid-19 measures must be employed while the vaccination rate from October to December must meet the target.”
“The orange scenario, or when the chance of virus spreading reduced by 15 per cent comparing to the pre-lockdown period, will result in slightly reduced daily infection rate,” he added. “This scenario can be achieved by closing high-risk venues and banning public assembly and alcoholic beverages in restaurants. The vaccination rate from October to December must also meet the target.”
“Lastly, the grey scenario will happen if the chance of virus spreading could not be reduced to abovementioned levels and vaccination rate from October to December misses the target,” said Chawetsan. “This will result in rising infection rate to the same level as pre-lockdown period, while number of daily infections could reach 10,000 people.”
“Please note that number of infections are not the only factor that determine the severity of outbreak situation. We must also consider the readiness of public health system in treating Covid-19 patients,” Chawetsan pointed out.
