Thai-US relations ‘hinge on future US trade policy’

Somchai Pakapatwiwat, a political scientist, said there were several possible twists in relations. 
The first was whether the US would punish Thailand by imposing trade barriers on Thai goods to tackle its trade deficit with Thailand. 
Second was whether US investors would invest more in Thailand, especially as the Thai government is keen on promoting the Eastern Economic Corridor. 
Third, would the US extend more collaboration on education and technology? 
“We may get a clear picture in the next two or three months as to what will happen to the relationship,” said Somchai. 
He said the US wanted Thailand to buy more American products, while the Thai government is trying to encourage companies in the Kingdom to import US goods and invest more in the US in order to help President Donald Trump achieve his job-creation goal.
While Prayut may be happy with Trump’s hospitality and geniality, he must remember that the US president would do what he has to do to protect his country’s interests, which might contradict Thailand’s interests, said Somchai. 
Sompop Manarungsan, dean of the Panyapiwat Institute of Management, was also worried about future actions by Trump. 
“If Trump can manage the North Korea threat and US domestic politics, he may turn to address trade issues seriously with trade partners including Thailand,” said Sompop. 
On the US list of 16 countries having high trade surpluses with the US, Thailand ranked 11th with a surplus worth US$19 billion (Bt635 billion) last year. The US trade deficit in goods was worth $736 billion last year .
“Taking into account two-way trade between Thailand and the US worth about $40 billion, Thailand’s trade surplus with US was relatively high,” said Sompop. Trump wants Thailand to import more US goods, including military hardware, he added. 
Thailand does not have much negotiation power when it comes to trade issues with the US, Sompop said. Thai business leaders who accompanied Prayut to the US have pledged to buy more US goods and invest more in America. The Siam Cement Group plans to import 155,000 tonnes of coal from the US, while PTTGC is considering investing in shale gas in the state of Ohio. 
“Voters in Ohio had contributed to Trump winning presidential election, “ Sompop said. “This is the reason why Thai companies have tried to appease Trump by promising to invest and create jobs.” 
Sompop expected Trump would aggressively promote the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor to counter China’s One Belt, One Road initiative. The US has closely cooperated with Japan and India. Among Asean countries, the US is also trying to cement closer relationships with Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, he said, noting that Trump planned to visit the last two countries by the end of this year. 
Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, assistant managing director of Phatra Securities, was also worried about possible US trade retaliation against Thailand.
The US has laws to punish countries accused of manipulating currency by weakening it in order to boost exports. Thailand has not yet met this criteria but rising trade and current-account surpluses are moving Thailand closer to the US definition of currency manipulation, added Pipat.