A tale of two referendums

Such a claim of legitimacy might pass muster at home but from the viewpoint of the international community, Sunday’s referendum has as much credibility as the 2008 referendum in Myanmar. In many ways, the referendums in Thailand and Myanmar have a common strand – they were conducted to seek legitimacy for military-sponsored constitutions. Perhaps Myanmar’s junta, then known as State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), took inspiration from its Thai counterpart – the Council for National Security (CNS) – which had conducted a referendum to endorse its charter in 2007.          

The CNS, which toppled the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006, held the charter referendum in a relatively free atmosphere. It allowed people to digest and debate the content of the draft. Pro-democracy activists were able to campaign against the military charter. The 2007 charter got the approval of 14.72 million people or 51.8 per cent of those who cast their ballots. However, the proportion of people who said no to the 2007 charter was relatively high with 10.74 million disapproving – 42.19 per cent of those who cast their ballots.          

 In May 2008, Myanmar’s SPDC followed in the footsteps of its Thai counterpart and conducted a referendum amid the deadly Cyclone Nargis, which seriously damaged many areas including the largest city, Yangon. The voting date was set for May 10 but people in many areas could not cast their ballots until two weeks later due to the severe impact of the cyclone.            The SPDC announced there was a 99-per-cent turnout and 92.4 per cent of the voters had backed the military-sponsored charter. The international community widely rejected the referendum as flawed.       

Myanmar’s military government had refused to allow international or independent referendum monitors including the United Nations’ offer for assistance in running the referendum. Many international human rights groups said the referendum was held in an atmosphere of official coercion and vote tampering. Unfazed by international opinion, the constitution came into force and the junta called an election in November 2010, which was won by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. 

One of the key members of the junta, General Thein Sein, became the first president under the 2008 constitution. Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the pro-democracy National League for Democracy (NLD), who had been locked in a long battle with the military since 1988 had to wait for five years before winning the general election last year. However, because of the constitution, she was barred from taking the top job in the administration. The NLD currently runs the country under military guidelines in line with the constitution, while the military preserves its right of veto. The commander-in-chief of Myanmar’s armed forces can take charge whenever he deems it necessary. The Thai junta, which now calls itself the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), has decided to follow in the footsteps of its Myanmar colleagues. 

Sunday’s referendum was held in a manner very similar to Myanmar’s 2008 referendum. Luckily, there was no storm or any natural disaster.Like the SPDC, the NCPO did not allow the population to digest the content of the charter. The majority who cast their ballots on Sunday told a survey that they had not read the draft at all. Criticism of the draft was not allowed and campaigning against the draft was declared illegal. Students, activists and politicians were arrested, detained and prosecuted for their actions against the charter. International pleas for freedom of expression and people participation were consistently rejected. 

While politicians and activists were prohibited from campaigning against the charter, military officers and civil servants were dispatched to communities to promote the charter. However, the Thai military are not as tough as their Myanmar colleagues because they failed to force the majority in the Northeast, the Upper North and Muslim-majority deep South to endorse the constitution. As in Myanmar, the next step is the new constitution will come into force and the charter drafters will draft organic laws to secure the military’s power in politics.As a consequence of the constitution, General Prayut Chan-o-cha or other members of the junta will be allowed to take over the premiership after the general election. 

Like the NLD, pro-democracy groups in Thailand might need to struggle for a while to have a chance for genuine participation in the administration as the charter has not tailored the next election scheduled for late 2016 or early 2017 – if the junta honours its word – for them.