Driving older cars off Bangkok’s streets won’t work

Yet, each attempt has either been sidelined or conked out long before it could have an impact. As a result, how many older cars are permitted to enter which zones in the capital has always been in dispute.

Given the repeated failures it’s surprising that the Office of Industrial Economics is now proposing action to get cars older than seven years off Bangkok’s roads. Practically the same proposal was made three years ago by the Metropolitan Police Bureau – before being quickly aborted.

This time round, the suggestion is that hiking tax on older cars will drive the heavy polluters off the road which will in turn increase demand for new cars and boost the economy.

As of March 31 there were 36.9 million vehicles registered in Thailand, 7.89 million of which were cars. Almost half of those were registered in Bangkok, according to Department of Land Transport figures.

Raising tax barriers against cars older than seven years could drive almost four million off the streets of the capital by 2020.

Yet there is good reason to believe that fate of this latest measure will be no different from its predecessors.

Many would agree that, in theory, the move would cut road accidents and also pollution while boosting demand for new cars – as indeed it has in several developed countries. But Thailand is not a developed country. Still just a production base for developed countries, we are stuck fast in a middle-income trap. As such Thailand is still a long way from joining the handful of rich countries where a significant portion of the populace can afford to buy a new car every seven years.

In reality, the latest proposal risks becoming a discrimination issue, hindering the poor by offering them less chance to posses their own cars or restricting their older cars to certain zones in the capital. It could also be difficult to implement, with little to stop owners registering their older cars in the provinces and then using them in Bangkok.

Most people buy a car through hire purchase on monthly instalment plans that average four years but can last as long as six. Meanwhile, the price of cars in Thailand is higher than those sold in more technologically advanced carmakers such as the United States, European Union and Japan.

Scepticism remains over whether increasing car production in Thailand would boost the economy, and, if so, which part of it would grow? Do we really need that kind of growth?

The problem is exacerbated by the paucity of public transport choices in central Bangkok. We have only two electrified train lines covering a total distance of 56 kilometres.

Rather than focusing on cars, the government would do better to pour more effort into improving the country’s mass transport systems, both in terms of efficiency and reach.

Authorities could also collect tolls on roads in restricted areas where public transport is already both efficient and plentiful.

 Bangkok plans at least 10 electrified metro lines running 300 kilometres in length. Only when those plans have been realised should we think about limiting access to the capital for older cars.

sasithorn@nationgroup.com