Pheu Thai likely to win almost half of 400 constituency MP seats: Nation analysis

The analysis was based on the findings of recent nationwide surveys of eligible voters.

Pheu Thai has a good chance of winning 194 MP seats and could gain some more in the fight for 84 hotly contested seats.

A member of the outgoing ruling coalition, Bhumjaithai Party, is expected to come second in the contest for 400 constituency MP seats, with a good chance of winning 58 seats and fighting closely for 44 more seats.

The Democrat Party, Thailand’s oldest political outfit, is likely to finish third, with a good chance of winning 51 MP seats while fighting with high hopes for five more.

The Nation Group released an analysis of nationwide election surveys for the first time on Friday. The analysis was made by the media group’s editors and provincial reporters across the country.

The predictions were based on results of surveys conducted on eligible voters across the country through door-to-door visits.

The statistical samples were selected systematically and the results were analysed by a team of researchers led by Asst Prof Chettha Subyen, assistant to the president of Navamindradhiraj University who is also the director of Nation Poll.

This was part of the “Road to The Future: Election 2023” project, a collaboration between the Nation Group and a team of university researchers.

The analysis does not cover the 100 party-list MP seats.

At the upcoming election on May 14, voters will get two ballots – one to elect the constituency MP and the other their favourite political party.

Pheu Thai is likely to dominate in most regions of the country, except the South where the party is expected to lose in all the seats it contests.

The party, which is seeking to taking the reins of power back after eight years out of power, is likely to win as many as 100 out of the 133 MP seats contested in the Northeast, Thailand’s most populous region.

The Democrat Party is expected to win most MP seats in the South, its traditional stronghold, grabbing as many as 37 out of the 60 seats up for grabs.

The ruling Palang Pracharath Party is staring at a disappointing performance, with a chance of winning 26 MP seats and fighting closely for 38 more. The tally would be a sharp decline from the 116 seats it won in the previous election in March 2019.

Meanwhile, the one-year-old United Thai Nation Party, which has nominated Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its PM candidate, is likely to have a good chance of winning 21 constituency MP seats while fighting closely for 23 more.

The Move Forward Party, the second largest in the opposition camp, has a good chance of winning 25 seats from constituencies while fighting for 22 more.

Other parties expected to win constituency MP seats include Chart Thai Pattana (winning 9 and in contention for 3 more), Prachachat (6 and 4), Chart Pattana Kla (4 and 2), and Thai Sang Thai (2 and 3).

In Bangkok, where 33 MP seats are being contested, Pheu Thai has a good chance of winning as many as 14 seats while running close for 9 more. It is followed by Move Forward, with a chance of winning 10 seats and fighting for 9 more.

In the previous election, when 30 seats were contested in the capital, the two parties had won 9 seats each while Palang Pracharath grabbed the remaining 12.

The Democrats are the front-runners for 5 seats and fighting for 2 more, followed by Thai Sang Thai (2 and 2), United Thai Nation (1 and 3), and Palang Pracharath (1 and 1).

The result would be an improvement for the Democrats, who won no MP seats in their traditional stronghold Bangkok in the previous election. For Palang Pracharath, the results would be a severe setback.