Trump’s trade shockwaves hit Thailand, Thai economists warn

The session, titled “Trump’s Global Quake: Thailand Survival Strategy”, was hosted by Krungthep Turakij, Thansettakij and PostToday at the Waldorf Astoria Bangkok Hotel.

Economists observed that the US trade policies — particularly the proposed universal tariff of 10% and reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade surpluses — are designed to uphold Washington’s position as the global economic leader.

“Trump’s tariffs are a strategic move to restart negotiations and tilt the global trading system in America’s favour, as it grapples with the loss of its production base, rising debt, and a US$1.2 trillion trade deficit,” said Kobsak Pootrakool, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (FETCO).

International trade expert Aat Pisanwanich

Thai government’s slow response

International trade expert Aat Pisanwanich noted that the US is also concerned about non-tariff measures and China’s growing influence in the global economy.

He warned that the Thai government’s sluggish response to the US trade agenda leaves the country vulnerable to US tariffs and the wider impact of a global economic slowdown. He predicted disruptions in the supply chain and an influx of Chinese goods into Thailand.

“Thai exports to the US and global markets could decline by 700 billion to 1 trillion baht this year,” he cautioned.

Kobsak Pootrakool, chairman of FETCO

Seeking mutual benefits

Economists urged Thailand to negotiate with the US to seek mutual benefits, while also exploring opportunities to strengthen domestic economic growth.

Rather than relying heavily on exports to the US — which currently account for 18% of total exports — they recommended expanding trade with other countries, particularly through free trade agreements (FTAs).

Aat also suggested that Thailand import certain goods and technologies from the US — such as soybeans, corn, barley, and meat — to help reduce the US trade deficit. Simultaneously, Thailand should accelerate exports of over 1,000 products that remain exempt from US tariffs, he added.

“Thailand should place more emphasis on negotiation rather than focusing solely on tariffs,” said Kobsak. He added that there are broader interests the US seeks to address through negotiation beyond tariff exemptions.

He also warned that Thailand may be pressured to choose sides between the US and China, a move that could heighten geopolitical tensions. Preparation is therefore vital to help Thailand maintain its neutral stance and strengthen its economic resilience, he added.

Amonthep Chawla, Chief Economist at CIMB Thai Bank

"Zero-dollar" exports

Amonthep Chawla, Chief Economist at CIMB Thai Bank, said Thailand must also address concerns over product origin, as the US suspects ASEAN is serving as a transit hub for Chinese goods aiming to bypass tariffs.

Although Thai exports have grown by over 10%, Amonthep noted that the country’s productivity and employment levels have seen little improvement.

He urged the government to tackle the issue of “zero-dollar exports” — trade that results in a deficit with China — as well as “zero-dollar tours”, where Chinese tourists contribute little to the Thai economy, and “zero-dollar investment”, where Chinese labour and raw materials are used without benefiting local industries.