SCB predicts Thailand’s export growth in 2025 to fall to 1.6%

The Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) has lowered its export growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1.6%, citing trade wars and external factors as the main reasons.

In November, the SCB EIC predicted that Thailand’s export growth would be around 2%, while the Commerce Ministry and the government had set an export growth target of 3-3.5%.

The SCB EIC explained that the growth drivers seen in the first quarter of this year were not sustainable enough to support expansion throughout the year.

It also anticipated that factors exerting pressure on the global economy, particularly the US trade war, would intensify in the second quarter.

The SCB EIC predicted that exports would continue to expand in March due to rising demand for electronic products and increased gold imports by India ahead of a planned legal revision to close gold import loopholes.

Moreover, the SCB EIC pointed out that the comparison base for March 2024 was exceptionally low at -10.5% growth, which would contribute to a seemingly higher growth rate this month.

Exports are expected to start slowing down in the second quarter and to contract in the second half of the year due to trade barriers, declining investment, and shifts in labour and capital across various regions.

In particular, the EIC predicted that the US trade war would contribute to a global economic slowdown.

Additionally, it noted that the second half of last year saw significant export growth of 7.5% in the third quarter and 10.5% in the fourth quarter, which would create a high base effect and exert further pressure on export performance in the latter half of this year.