Concerns over safety cause drop in Chinese visitor numbers

 

Thailand’s ambitious target of attracting 9 million Chinese tourists in 2025 is looking increasingly unlikely, with projections now suggesting only 7.5 million visitors.

 

This shortfall is attributed to a combination of safety concerns, China’s economic slowdown, and increased competition from other destinations.

 

Despite the positive impact of the visa-free agreement between the two countries, a series of negative incidents, including the “Xing Xing” call centre scam involving a Chinese actor, and reports of Chinese scamming Chinese, zero-dollar tours, and boat accidents, have damaged Thailand’s reputation among Chinese travellers.

 

The resulting “Thailand is unsafe” narrative circulating on Chinese social media, amplified by events such as the cancellation of a concert by Hong Kong singer Eason Chan, has taken its toll.

 

While initial Chinese arrivals in Thailand were promising, with 916,340 visitors between January 1 and February 16, the market remains volatile.  Concerns about human trafficking and scams can quickly deter potential tourists.

 

 

Thailand’s efforts to address these issues, such as cutting off electricity and internet access in Myawaddy, Myanmar, to disrupt scam operations, are being closely watched by the Chinese public.

 

Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), stressed the need for proactive communication to rebuild trust in Thailand’s safety.
 

 

He emphasised that Thailand is often a transit point rather than the source of problems, and highlighted government measures to combat crime and human trafficking.

 

However, he acknowledged the concerning drop in daily Chinese visitor numbers, from 20,000-30,000 to less than 10,000, making the 9 million target a distant prospect.

 

Adding to the challenge is China's economic slowdown, which is expected to limit Chinese tourists to Thailand to below 8 million in 2025, a modest increase from 6.73 million in 2024.

 

This figure is still far from the 11 million arrivals seen pre-pandemic.

 

 

Kasikorn Research Centre forecasts 7.5 million Chinese tourists in 2025, an 11.4% rise from 2024, representing only 68% of 2019 levels. While the visa-free policy and Thailand's cost-effectiveness as a destination are positive factors, they are being overshadowed by other concerns. 

 

Tour packages and airfares from China to Thailand remain competitive, but this alone is not enough to reverse the trend.
 

 

Four key factors are hindering growth:

Safety image: Thailand must urgently restore confidence among Chinese tourists. Surveys indicate growing safety concerns, with some travellers cancelling trips or choosing alternative destinations.

 

China’s economy: Economic uncertainties, including the fluctuating yuan, are impacting Chinese spending power and outbound travel. The strong baht compared to the yuan makes destinations with weaker currencies, like Japan and South Korea, more attractive.

 

Competition: Other countries are aggressively targeting Chinese tourists, with some, like Japan, already exceeding Thailand in visitor numbers. Visa-free policies and increased flight connectivity are giving Chinese travellers more options.

 

Changing travel trends: Chinese tourists are increasingly favouring independent travel and small group tours, seeking unique experiences and relying heavily on social media for travel inspiration. This requires a more nuanced approach to marketing and destination development.

 

 

 

Visa-free policy driving Thai tourism to China

Conversely, the visa-free policy has significantly boosted Thai tourism to China. Shanghai alone welcomed 301,900 Thai visitors in 2024 – a remarkable 345.16% year-on-year increase.

 

The Shanghai Municipal Administration of Culture and Tourism reported over 6.7 million international arrivals in 2024, with Thailand emerging as the fastest-growing source market. Malaysia and Indonesia ranked second and third among rapidly growing markets, while South Korea, the US and Japan remained the largest sources of international visitors.

 

This trend extends beyond Shanghai to other major Chinese cities including Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, which have become popular destinations for international tourists, including those from Thailand.