Chamber of Commerce forecasts moderate growth, urges govt action

The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) has forecast economic growth for 2025 to range between 2.4% and 2.9%, citing ongoing global challenges and the potential impact of US trade policies.

At a press conference on Monday, TCC chairman Sanan Angubolkul acknowledged the challenges facing the Thai economy, particularly the potential impact of US trade measures. 

While acknowledging strong export growth expected in the first half of the year, driven by pre-tariff import surges, the TCC expressed concerns about the second half, anticipating a slowdown in tourism and exports due to the implementation of US tariffs and a potential global economic downturn.

The TCC projects overall GDP growth of 2.4-2.9% for 2025, with exports anticipated to rise by 1.5-2.5% and inflation remaining low at 0.8-1.2%.

The TCC highlighted the critical need for the government to increase revenue to stimulate economic growth. While acknowledging the potential for increased value-added tax (VAT), from 7% to 15%, the Chamber expressed reservations, citing concerns about its potential impact on consumer spending and overall economic growth.
 

The TCC urged the government to prioritise measures to boost tourism, particularly by addressing the decline in Chinese tourism following the "disappearing celebrities" incident. Attracting Indian tourists was also emphasised. 

Furthermore, the Chamber stressed the importance of promoting exports of new products manufactured within the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) to enhance export value.

To stimulate domestic consumption, the TCC recommended the government consider reviving previous economic stimulus measures, such as the "Half-Half co-payment" or "Khoon Song" (multiply by two) schemes, which aimed to encourage consumer spending.

Regarding the recent Cabinet reshuffle, Sanan said it is a normal occurrence and that the government remains stable. He expressed confidence in the government's ability to maintain policy consistency, which is crucial for maintaining foreign investor confidence.

The TCC also acknowledged the challenges posed by increased competition from low-cost imports, particularly from China. The Chamber announced plans to develop guidelines for trade measures within the ASEAN framework to protect Thai industries from unfair competition and is expected to conclude them by February.

Overall, the TCC emphasised the need for proactive government intervention to address economic challenges, boost revenue, and stimulate growth in the second half of 2025.