Joint private sector panel expects 2.4–2.9% GDP growth this year

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) on Wednesday forecast that Thailand’s economic growth for this year would be between 2.4% and 2.9%, with export growth projected at 1.5% to 2.5%.

The committee, comprising representatives from the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC), the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and the Thai Bankers’ Association (TBA), held a press conference to announce its projections for key economic indicators.

TCC Chairman Sanan Angubolkul, who chaired the joint panel meeting, stated that the Thai economy in 2025 is expected to grow by 2.4% to 2.9%. He noted that export growth this year is predicted to be lower than last year, ranging between 1.5% and 2.5%.

Sanan added that the panel anticipates Thailand’s headline inflation will remain low, at rates between 0.8% and 1.2%.

He emphasised that tourism would remain the primary driver of economic growth, with approximately 39 million foreign tourists expected to visit Thailand this year.

The economy would also benefit from government initiatives such as the "Easy E-Receipt" shopping promotion programme, which allows taxpayers to deduct certain shopping expenses from their taxable income.

Additionally, the second and third phases of the government’s 10,000-baht handout scheme are expected to contribute to economic growth.

However, Sanan cautioned that growth would likely fall short of Thailand’s full potential due to structural challenges. These include a high household debt ratio of 104% of GDP and the inability of many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to compete with an influx of cheap imports or succeed in export markets.

He further remarked that economic momentum in the first half of the year would rely on the government’s stimulus measures. For sustained growth in the second half of the year, Sanan stressed the importance of collaboration between the private sector and the government.