Last quarter of 2024 expected to reveal positive economic growth

Purchasing power and consumption in the fourth quarter are expected to remain strong, based on the approximately 3% GDP growth observed in Q3, Thanawat Polvichai, chairman of the Advisory Board for the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said.

He believes purchasing power and consumption will improve, driven by government spending, private sector consumption growth, exports and a robust tourism sector.

It is estimated that by the end of 2024, around 36 million tourists will have visited Thailand, enhancing spending in tourist provinces and thus boosting domestic consumption and purchasing power.

Additionally, the government plans to introduce economic stimulus measures before the end of the year. The finance ministry is preparing to propose the “easy e-receipt” project,  tax deduction measures to encourage domestic consumption. It is expected to provide further economic stimulation during the year-end period.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce is maintaining its GDP growth forecast for 2024 at 2.6%, with the service and tourism sectors being the main drivers. Exports are projected to grow by 4.6%, government spending by 1.6%, and public investment by 2%.

Thanawat stated that at the beginning of 2025, the government will implement economic stimulus measures, including the second phase of distributing 10,000 baht to senior citizens. This initiative is expected to inject approximately 40 billion baht into the economy. Additionally, the “you fight, we help” programme, which offers interest payment suspension and principal reduction, for which registration began on December 12 and runs until February 28, is anticipated to take effect by the end of the first quarter.

The University estimates that the annual economic circulation from these measures will amount to at least 80-100 billion baht in savings for the public, enabling banks to extend more loans.

The 1,000 baht per rai assistance programme for farmers is also expected to inject around 40 billion baht into the system.

“These measures will collectively contribute 100-150 billion baht to the economy, improving Thailand's economic performance in Q1 2025. Furthermore, with the first quarter being the high season for tourism, we expect a significant influx of tourists, targeting approximately 40 million visitors throughout the year,” Thanawat said.

Such factors will positively impact Thailand’s economy, purchasing power, and consumption, provided there are no major global shocks from intensified trade wars, escalations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a Middle East crisis, or domestic political instability.

Thanawat stated that for GDP in 2025, the University expects a growth of approximately 3%, assuming no significant events occur. However, if President Trump initiates a trade war and raises tariffs by 10%, it would result in a loss of approximately 160 billion baht from the economy.