Thailand's thriving and declining businesses in 2025
Amid the rapid developments of the modern era, the business world is no exception. Businesses continue to evolve to meet societal demands. Those that align with societal needs thrive and prosper, while those that do not tend to face a contrasting fate.
According to assessments by various parties, Thailand's economy in 2025 is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower rate, under the risk of global economic pressures from various challenges.
The analysis from Kasikorn Research Center indicates that several factors in 2025 may pressure business growth, including:
- Slower economic growth: Private consumption is expected to grow by only 2.4% in 2025, down from 4.6% in 2024.
- Intensified competition from imports: One-quarter of Thailand's imports are from China.
- Declining production utilization: Import pressures have reduced the average capacity utilization to 58% during the first 10 months of 2024.
- Ageing society impacts: Over 34% of elderly individuals have low income, earning less than 30,000 baht per year.
- Rising healthcare costs: The elderly face increased risks of illnesses, especially non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
- Stricter environmental regulations: Both domestic and international measures, such as CBAM and the Climate Change Act, are tightening.
- Higher adaptation costs for businesses.
Three consumer trends that may support business growth include:
- Smart Spending: Consumers prioritize value-for-money purchases.
- Self-Healing: Trends focus on emotional well-being, being up-to-date, and storytelling.
- Sustainability: Eco-friendly trends align with both domestic and international market demands.
Top 5 Thriving Businesses:
- Health foods and beverages: Market value is expected to grow by 5-7%, driven by health-conscious trends and an aging society.
- Healthcare and beauty: Rising health awareness will boost healthcare spending by 4-6% annually.
- Tourism and emotional well-being services: This includes pet-related activities, concerts, spirituality tours, and popular themes. For example, the pet food market is projected to grow by 10-15%, aligning with the rising pet ownership trend.
- Child-related products and services: The children’s product market is expected to grow by 4%, as parents continue to demand quality and safe products.
- Green and low-carbon businesses: 58% of consumers are willing to pay more for eco-friendly goods and services.
Top 5 Declining Businesses:
- Fashion, furniture, and home décor manufacturing: Sales growth is slowing due to fragile purchasing power and competition from imports.
- Combustion engine car dealerships: The shift to EVs is pressuring sales of traditional vehicles.
- Real estate: The sector continues to shrink due to subdued demand and a high number of unsold units.
- Traders and intermediaries: Manufacturers increasingly use omnichannel strategies to directly reach consumers.
- High-carbon businesses: Sectors such as steel and aluminium face environmental pressures in addition to competition from imports.
