Thailand set to gain as US-China trade war expected to intensify
KBank’s research arm expects Chinese manufacturers to shift production to Thailand to escape the intensified trade war between both countries
The research arm of KBank has predicted that key industries in Thailand will gain from the US-China trade war as it could intensify after the US elects its new president next month.
The Kasikorn Research Centre said in its latest analysis that the intensified trade war would prompt Chinese manufacturers to shift their production bases out of the mainland, and Thailand would stand to gain in at least seven industries.
The centre noted that no matter which candidate wins, the trade war will likely intensify because both have unveiled policies to raise taxes against Chinese-made products.
Democrat candidate Kamala Harris has promised to raise the tariff on strategic goods, while Republican candidate Donald Trump promises a blanket tariff increase as well as a 100% tax increase on any country that stops tying its currency to the US dollar basket.
The research centre said it expects Chinese manufacturers to shift their production bases to Thailand in seven key industries, namely:
- Semiconductors
- Solar panels
- Parts of digital cameras
- Medical and rubber gloves
- TV peripherals
- Printed circuit assembly
- Toys
The centre said its analysis is based on Trump’s policy as president when he invoked the Unfair Trade Practice Section 301 in 2018 to raise taxes on Chinese products, especially midstream products like hard drives, rubber tyres, auto parts, and parts of smartphones. The tariff on these products was set at 25%.
