Impacts on economy and trade inevitable after US election
Trade Policy and Strategy Office director urges Thai agencies and businesses to stay ahead of the game and monitor events in the US in real time
Thailand has been advised to brace for potential impacts on the economy and trade following the US presidential election in November.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, pointed out that the US international trade policies have significantly affected the global market over the past 7-8 years.
Republican candidate Donald Trump’s America First Policy to protect national benefits and the ongoing trade war with China had led to slowdowns in both the Thai and global economies, he explained.
He added that Democrat candidate Joe Biden’s tech war against China and policy to draw investors back to the country had also triggered a shift in the global supply chain.
If Trump wins, the US would reduce assistance to countries in conflict zones, especially Ukraine, which might result in the end of Russia-Ukraine war, he said. He added that the US would also reduce its support to maintaining global security, which could lead to conflict in other areas.
On the global economy, he said the US trade protection measures would become stricter and the trade war with China would intensify. Tariffs on imported products to the US would increase by 10 per cent and could reach 60 per cent on Chinese imports.
Biden announced an increase in import tariffs on Chinese strategic products in November last year, such as electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductors, solar cells, steel and aluminium.
To cope with impact on Thai economy, Poonpong advised relevant agencies to closely follow the US presidential election to keep up with candidates’ policies on economy and foreign affairs, especially those that would affect Thailand’s trade, investment and supply chain; launch trade protection measures as appropriate to protect Thai industries from an influx of US products on the global market; boost the potential of Thai entrepreneurs along with enhancing the country's competitiveness by attracting investment in target industries, develop an ecosystem that supports business operations and negotiate free-trade agreements.
He also recommended strengthening relationships with trade partners to cope with risk of economic decoupling, including collaboration on innovation, technology and production while paying close attention to the country’s economic status, such as policy interest, inflation and employment rate, and boosting potential small and medium enterprises.
The US market was worth US$27.36 trillion in 2023, accounting for 25.95 per cent of global GDP. It is Thailand’s second most important trade partner following China, and in fifth place in terms of foreign direct investment nation following Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and the Netherlands.
